Wisconsin Over Butler, Luck Runs Out

Butler has had a very good run the last couple of years.  Last year they made it to the title game and this season they are in the Sweet 16.  Both runs have to be considered over-achievement due to seed and opponents.  While I respect and appreciate the run Butler has made the last two years I cannot help but feel that luck has played a large role.

Let me review last year’s run:

• Last year Butler was a 5 seed, whose 4 seed was upset by Murray State giving Butler a weaker second round opponent.
• However it was Murray State who gave Butler its toughest game until the Duke title game.  Butler won by two points and was outshot and outrebounded.  Butler was fortunate to survive what seemed like a second round break.
• Another big break Butler benefited from was being placed in the same region as a wrongly seeded 1 seed in Syracuse.  Last year when Arinze Onuaku got hurt in the Big East tournament nobody really knew how it would effect Syracuse but we all knew it would not be good.  Onuaku was second on the team in rebounding and blocks and was the third, and very important, piece of the Syracuse baseline in the 2-3 zone.  Syracuse should have been a 2 seed at best.
• When Butler played Syracuse the Orange played in their normal careless manner by turning it over way too often, but without the dominant defense creating steals and blocks that Onuaku helped provide, Syracuse was not able to overcome the turnovers.  The game was hardly an upset.
• Butler caught another break in the Elite 8 by matching up with a worn out Kansas State team.  Kansas State and Xavier had been matched up in a double overtime classic.  It was the best game of the tournament and not only was it double overtime, but it was the late game on Friday forcing KSU a much quicker turnaround for their game with Butler.  It was obvious early on that KSU was gassed.
• Butler caught a final break when Michigan State made it to the Final Four.  MSU’s best player Kalin Lucas was hurt earlier in the tourney with an ACL injury.  It was only due to the great tournament coaching abilities of Tom Izzo that MSU was able to get to the Final Four.  In the Semifinal Butler was able to hold on by two.

I cannot help but feel that Butler got several breaks last year and that has to stop.  Add to the items pointed out above and the opponents free throw shooting% against Butler last year was over 10% lower than their average.  This is not a stat category you have a lot of control over, it really can be a good luck/bad luck stat.

I think Wisconsin wins tonight because:

• Unlike Pittsburgh and Old Dominion, the Badgers do not rely on offensive rebounds which is good because defensive rebounding is a Butler strength.
• Butler fouls too much and Wisconsin is the best free throw shooting ever at over 82%.  In this matchup Butler does not get to play a team that will miss their free throws.
• The teams are too similar, Butler does not benefit from style contrast.  Wisconsin does a lot of the same things, only better.
• I do not see the great player, or really hot player, that can knock out Wisconsin.  Stephen Curry and Ryan Wittman have filled this role in the past for Davidson and Cornell.  Shelvin Mack has played well but he is not the pure shooter that the other two were.  If the Badgers can survive Jacob Pullen’s unbelievable night, Mack can be no worse.

This game is by no means a slam dunk for Wisconsin and is one of the more underrated games of the Sweet 16 since it will come down to the final minute.  I think Wisconsin will hold on at the end 65-61.