Big Ten Football Preview: Purdue

Our Big Ten football season preview continues today with Purdue, a team for which there isn’t much to lead this article with.

Purdue football hasn’t found its stride since the early part of last decade, where coach Joe Tiller and two capable quarterbacks made Purdue a worthy opponent in the Big Ten for a while.  Drew Brees led the Boilermakers to their only Big Ten championship in the last 42 years during the peak of his success in 2000, and then Kyle Orton started four consecutive bowl games from 2001-04. Since then however, Purdue hasn’t been able to find a strong quarterback, or coach, and it’s cost them. After a run of four and five win seasons, Purdue enters 2011 without much fanfare.

2010 season:

Led by second-year coach Danny Hope, Purdue stumbled to 4-8 in 2010, including a 2-6 mark in the Big Ten. Injuries played a significant role, but a home loss to Toledo in week four was probably the signal that 2010 was not the Boilermakers’ year anyway. They got off to a good start in Big Ten play against Northwestern and hapless Minnesota, but then proceeded to lose six straight, including an embarrassing stretch against Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin in which they were outscored 127-23. They did give Michigan State a run for their money in East Lansing towards the end of the season, but 2010 was another down year for a program that hasn’t been to a bowl since the Curtis Painter era (2007).

Over the course of the year, Purdue managed to earn the distinction of being the absolute worst team in the country when it came to yards per pass attempt, due to a confluence of factors: a torn ACL for starting QB Robert Marve, a torn ACL and MCL for senior wideout Keith Smith, and a very inexperienced passer in freshman Rob Henry, who was much more comfortable running the ball. When another freshman, Sean Robinson, was handed the offense, he struggled too.

And when the offense turned to the running game, they were solid if unspectacular, even after loss of junior Ralph Bolden to an ACL tear before the season. Rob Henry proved effective in the zone read offense when he took off on the ground, leading the team with 547 yards and 4 touchdowns. Of course, those numbers don’t look so solid when you remember that Wisconsin had nearly three 1,000 yard rushers, but the Boilermakers were middle-of-the-pack in Big Ten rushing ranks. That is, in everything except scoring.

Purdue ranked 105 out of 120 FBS teams in scoring offense last year, averaging just over 19 points a game. To put that in perspective, Eastern Michigan University (2-10 in the MAC) had a more fearsome offense last year.

As for defense, however, the Boilermakers were staunch on the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry, good for third in the Big Ten. This was a unit led by All-American Ryan Kerrigan, who terrorized opposing quarterbacks and lineman all year. He led the defense to 33 total sacks, a significant total. However, those opposing quarterbacks still managed to complete 65% of their passes against Purdue, good for sixth worst in the entire nation. That inadequacy against the pass prevented Kerrigan and the front seven from mattering too much in most contests.

All in all, 2010 didn’t offer much hope for the future or any clear bright spots beyond Kerrigan, who is now in the NFL. However, sophomore wideout Antavian Edison managed to establish himself as a solid threat, and the good play of a relatively young defense was encouraging, at least against the run.

In fact, that run defense may be the strongest aspect of this year’s team.

Strengths:

• Run Defense: All-American defensive end Ryan Kerrigan may have graduated, but this is still a defense returning nine starters, including Second-Team All-Big Ten lineman Kawann Short.. Ranking third in yards per carry allowed in the rush-heavy Big Ten is certainly something to build on. With so much experience and a history of success last year, there’s no reason to expect a big fall-off with the departure of Kerrigan.

• Kicker: Although it may not be first on the Boilermakers’ list, their field goal game is in top shape. They have an NFL kicker on their hands in Senior Carson Wiggs, who may have the strongest leg in the country. He was 5/6 on field goal tries from over 40 yards last season, and although he was 15/19 on the year, he made his last 8. He also helped Purdue to first in the Big Ten in kickoff coverage by averaging 65 yards per kickoff, and even punted 9 of 22 attempts inside the 20. But here’s the (awful pun alert) kicker: he just hit a 67-yard field goal in the spring game, with room to spare.

Weaknesses:

• Quarterback: Even before practice last Tuesday, the quarterback situation wasn’t inspiring too much excitement in West Lafayette. Coach Hope was looking forward to having Rob Henry lead the team after his performance last year, but always planned on having junior Caleb TerBush ready for action in a two-quarterback system. That system just got more complicated, however, after Henry tore his ACL and is now most likely out for the year. Now Purdue must look toward two wholly unproven signal callers to lead them in 2011: TerBush, whose only action came in 2009 in 10 attempts in a blowout loss to Wisconsin, and sophomore Sean Robinson, who threw three times as many picks as touchdowns last year over 4 games.  TerBush is slightly ahead on the depth chart, and says he’s ready, but both QB’s will likely see action.

Furthering complications, the only experienced passer on the roster, Marve, may not play this year. He’s been slow to recover from a knee injury, and now it’s been reported that playing him may put Purdue in jeopardy in the wake of the Miami scandal, where Marve transferred from before the 2009 season. Of course, Purdue insists its only concern with Marve is his knee, and Marve hasn’t yet commented on a recent report that he received immunity from the NCAA for testifying about his time at Miami.  Whatever shakes out with Marve, even if he does return, Marve hasn’t exactly been lights out in his career so far with Miami or his brief stint last year before the injury.

• Secondary: Last year the ineffective secondary sabotaged an otherwise high performance defense, and the front seven’s success means the back four can’t rely on the lack of a pass rush as an excuse for their performance. This year the secondary is basically unchanged, which isn’t exactly good news. Sophomore Ricardo Allen was All-Big Ten last year, and everyone should have more experience, but it’s still not a great outlook for this unit.

• Injuries: You may have noticed more than a few references to ACL tears in this piece so far, and it’s already spawned a fitting nickname for Purdue athletics: ACL ‘U’.  Just to recap with the football squad: their starting halfback, best wideout, and two starting quarterbacks have all missed (or will miss) substantial time in the past two years thanks to ACL injuries. Right now, it seems like it will take some serious luck just for Purdue to withstand 2011 without a major knee injury to one of their better defensive players, since that’s the only side of the ball to come out unscathed as of now.

Expectations:

With the returning starters on defense and an offense poised to gain its stride, 2011 was looking like a year in which Purdue could make a run at a bowl. That is, until quarterback Rob Henry was lost for the season. Now, with a touch schedule that includes Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Ohio State among others, Purdue will most likely fall short of a bowl for another year, and hover around 5 wins. But if everything that has a reasonable chance of going right does in fact gel—an adequate QB emerges, the defense returns to form, the run game becomes a factor—don’t count Purdue out in 2011.