How Do Badger Wide Receivers Measure Up?

Russell Wilson’s play had the nation buzzing at the end of non-conference play, but that buzz turned into a roar after Wilson torched the Nebraska Cornhuskers for 14-of-20 completions, 255 yards, and two touchdowns last Saturday. Wilson has received much of the credit for the Badgers’ excellent passing offense — as well he should — but no success can come in the passing game without good receiving.

Nick Toon, Jared Abbrederis, and Jacob Pedersen have paced the passing game so far, becoming Russell Wilson’s most reliable receivers. Toon and Abbrederis in particular have been among the best wide receivers in the nation. Among the 1158 players that have caught a pass through five weeks of the college football season, Toon and Abbrederis both rank among the top 100 in yards and Toon ranks in the top 50 for both yards and receptions. Observe:

Pedersen has also put together an excellent year for a young tight end, ranking in the top 20 percent of all pass-catchers. White and Ball have done well out of the backfield when needed as checkdowns, and with those five receivers, the Badgers have powered their passing game.

It’s interesting to note how high these Badgers receivers rank despite the fact that even with Wilson, Wisconsin has stuck with the run on a large majority of their plays. As such, it may help to look at things through the lens of targets.

We can measure opportunities for a quarterback pretty easily — pass attempts as far as just the passing game goes; passing attempts plus sacks plus rushes for the total package. Similarly, running back opportunities are simply defined by the rushing attempt. For the receiver, we usually see the catch as the measure of opportunity — we often see yards per catch cited as an “efficiency statistic.”

Instead of simply using the catch, it is better to look at the number of plays on which the wide receiver is a passing target to figure a receiver’s opportunities. On occasion, it isn’t the receivers fault if he is targeted but doesn’t make the play — a receiver may be listed as the target on an occasion when the quarterback was simply throwing the ball away, or the ball may be so over or underthrown that the receiver had no chance. But often, it is the receivers failure to get open or failure to simply haul the pass in which generates the failure, and so it is generally fair to use the target as a measuring stick for receivers.

Unfortunately, this data isn’t always easy to get. It isn’t listed in easily available NCAA statistical summaries (although it now is featured in NFL box scores). But thanks to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, we now have that data for the first five weeks of the college football season. Here are the target numbers for the Badger receivers (who have at least one reception on the year):

Now this gives us a few new avenues of analysis: how often does the player catch the ball when they’re targeted? How often is the player targeted? How many yards does the offense gain when this player is targeted? Let’s go to the tables:

The takeaways from this are simple but can help us expand our knowledge of the roles of these receivers. Toon excels in every category, ranking in the top five percent of pass catchers. He is a high volume target, he catches the ball when it is thrown to him, and he makes big plays as well — the total package of a receiver. Abbrederis isn’t the sure receiver that Toon is, but his big play ability has more than made up for it. Pedersen has made his share of big plays as well, and the running backs, hidden though they may be so far, have made plays when given the opportunity.

Through five games, the Badgers clearly sport an incredibly talented wide receiving corps. Nick Toon is playing up to his potential, Jared Abbrederis is cashing in on the promise he showed in 2010, and Jacob Pedersen is showing himself to be the next link in the chain of talented Wisconsin tight ends. With those three to pass to, Russell Wilson should continue to put up excellent numbers, and if he ends up at the Heisman ceremony in New York this January, he’ll have these three to thank.