Previewing Wisconsin Basketball At Minnesota

A lot of these “rivalry week” games we’ve seen this week have been tough sells. Michigan-Nebraska? Michigan State-Penn State? Please. But I think tomorrow’s contest at The Barn in Minneapolis — the Wisconsin Badgers at the Minnesota Golden Gophers — even though it isn’t Duke-North Carolina, I think that qualifies as a rivalry. The Badgers and Gophers have split the last six meetings, and Wisconsin is looking for its first victory at The Barn since February 3rd, 2008.

Minnesota has rebounded from an 0-4 start in Big Ten play to come into Thursday’s action at seventh in the conference with a 5-6 record. In a normal year, that wouldn’t be a terribly impressive record for a Tubby Smith-coached team. This hasn’t been a normal year for either Minnesota or the Big Ten, however. The conference ranks first in Sports-Reference’s simple rating system, Ken Pomeroy’s computer rankings and Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings as the toughest in the nation. And for Minnesota, the team lost by far its best player and biggest star, Trevor Mbakwe, to an early season ACL tear.

Feb 5, 2012; Lincoln, NE, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers forward Rodney Williams (33) applauds during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Bob Devaney Sports Center. Minnesota won 69-61. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-US PRESSWIRE

The Golden Gophers have compensated with depth. Not a single Gopher player has used more than 24% of the team’s possessions — this is a team that operates without stars and on the strength of its bench over the skill of one or two star players. Only Rodney Williams and Julian Welch average over 10 points per game, but the Gophers have eight other players who average at least one made field goal per game.

The result has been a moderately efficient offense despite the lack of creators, largely built around ball movement for two-point shots — the Gophers rank first in the conference in assists per made field goal and shoot over 70% of their shots inside the arc. With all the ball movement, however, comes a propensity for turnovers. Minnesota turns the ball over more than all but two Big Ten teams at 20.8% of the time.

On defense, the Gophers are exceptionally vulnerable to the offensive rebound despite the presence of the behemoth 6’11″ Ralph Sampson III (somehow still five inches shorter than his father). Sampson’s defensive rebound rate of 17.6% is the team’s highest and ranks in the top 400 in the nation, but nobody else on the team has the height nor ability to rebound at any significant level. The Gophers allow one in three missed shots to be recovered by the opposing offense, something that could really save the Badgers if their shooting woes continue.

The Badgers’ defense should be enough, as it was in State College, to keep the Badgers in the game until the shots start falling. Minnesota is a superior team to Penn State, of course, and the Badgers will not be able to wait as long to start tickling the twine. But the Badgers have more than enough quality on their roster to handle the sheer number of bodies Tubby Smith will hurl at them. The Barn is a tough place to play, but the Badgers should hold the advantage.

As long as — and Wisconsin is used to this one — the shots fall.

Tags: featured, minnesota