Wisconsin Football: Breaking Down Vegas’ 7-Game Win Prediction

The Wisconsin football team is projected to win seven games in 2016 by Vegas oddsmakers. What’s the likelihood the Badgers perform better?

If Las Vegas oddsmakers are to be believed, the Wisconsin football team will regress this season on the way to a seven-win regular season.

must read: Badgers Who Exceeded Expectations in 2015

The South Point Race and Sportsbook in Las Vegas recently released 2016 over/unders for all college football teams, and landed on the number seven for the Badgers.

Several factors figure into the lower total for the Badgers, who won nine regular season games last year before defeating USC in the Holiday Bowl to finish the season with a 10-3 record.

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A seven-win season this year would mean the Badgers would be 7-5 after the regular season and bowl-eligible heading into the post-season.

It’s definitely understandable to think the Badgers will regress for three main factors.

First, the Badgers need to break in a new quarterback this season. Joel Stave has graduated, and the QB race isn’t settled.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see both Bart Houston and Alex Hornibrook get reps early in the year even after a starter is named. Neither have much experience, so the first couple games could be affected.

Second, Wisconsin lost one of the best defensive coordinators in the country when Dave Aranda left for LSU. He led Badgers defenses that stifled opponents the last few seasons, and was a huge part of Wisconsin’s success.

Third, and probably most importantly, is the Badgers gauntlet of a schedule in 2016.

The Badgers have by far their toughest schedule in years, which comes a year after one of their weakest schedules in recent memory.

Last year the Badgers opened against Alabama, but avoided Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan, drawing Rutgers and Maryland in cross-division match-ups.

This year, Wisconsin travels to face both Michigan teams and hosts Ohio State. The Badgers also have to go to Iowa and Northwestern, the two conference teams who emerged from Camp Randall with victories last season.

Here’s a look at the Badgers schedule in 2016:

Wisconsin Badgers /

Wisconsin Badgers

LSU (At Lambeau Field)
Akron
Georgia State
At Michigan State
At Michigan
Ohio State
At Iowa
Nebraska
At Northwestern
Illinois
At Purdue
Minnesota

Clearly, the Badgers have a tough road. If you’re looking at a seven win season, that likely assumes the Badgers earn victories in non-conference play against Akron and Georgia State, then close with a five-game win streak starting with the Nebraska match-up.

Even if Wisconsin manages to earn a victory in its first four conference games, the Badgers would likely need to stay perfect the remainder of the way to be a contender in the conference, especially if the lone win doesn’t come against Iowa.

It won’t surprise me if the Badgers surpass the seven-win mark this season. It would be a little surprising if they failed to get to that point, as I think the Badgers will steal a game against one of those first four conference opponents.

Wisconsin certainly has a tough road ahead, and you can’t blame Vegas for not trusting the Badgers to do more this season.

Next: Big Ten Night Games Returning to Camp Randall

Badgers fans are hoping the quarterback situation is a smooth transition, the defense stays strong despite a new coordinator, and Wisconsin can steal a road victory against one of the top teams in the conference this fall.