Dissecting the BCS: The Wisconsin Badgers and the Sagarin Ratings
By Editorial Staff
When the first BCS standings are released next week, don’t be surprised if the Wisconsin Badgers sit sixth, behind Boise State and Oklahoma State, as opposed to their fourth place marks in both human polls (the Harris Poll and the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll) that are factored in to the BCS standings.
Don’t be surprised, don’t be alarmed, and don’t be indignant.
As I wrote earlier this year, besides the three teams in front of them — LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, in some order — the biggest obstacle between the Badgers on the National Championship game is the computers. The computers will penalize the Badgers for their early schedule, playing one of the worst non-conference schedules of any power conference team, and as the computer rankings are not allowed to factor margin of victory into the numbers they spit out to the BCS committee, the Badgers’ blowout performances count nothing more than a victory by a field goal at the final gun. For now, the Badgers’ early schedule will likely push them from the fourth spot down to the sixth spot in the rankings.
Jeff Sagarin of the USA Today produces the Sagarin Ratings, one of the six computer ranking systems used in the BCS Standings. Sagarin’s rating system is quite rational — it ranks teams in a similar way that many competitive gaming systems use to rank players (we see this most often in chess). More credit is given to a team for beating a good team than a bad one, and a team is debited less for losing to a good team than beating a bad one.
The Badgers currently rank fifth in the overall Sagarin ratings, behind LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Boise State. In the Elo ratings (ELO_CHESS on the report), the ratings submitted to the BCS, the Badgers fall to sixth behind Oklahoma State, with Clemson replacing Boise State at fourth. Why? The Badgers currently hold the 109th ranked strength of schedule of 247 Division I schools (120 FBS schools). At once, this is both reason to worry and reason for reassurance.
The concern, of course, is that the non-conference schedule continues to drag the Badgers down throughout the season. But the comfort? The Badgers strength of schedule has nowhere to go but up. The presence of Minnesota (139), Indiana (140) and Purdue (101) won’t help. But the rest of the schedule, perhaps surprisingly so given the Big Ten’s poor national reputation this season, should be a boon: the other four schools on the Badgers’ schedule rank in the top 50 of the Sagarin Ratings so far. Ohio State sits at a disappointing 50, and Michigan State a middling 42 despite a national rank. But Penn State has a surprisingly high rank of 19 and Illinois is sitting pretty with the eighth ranking thanks to its first 6-0 start in six decades. And with the non-conference season over, losses for these teams mean wins for others on the list — basically, the aggregate rankings are locked in, and there won’t be much overall change.
Then there’s the Big Ten Championship Game, a new wrinkle which can be a massive help for the Badgers as long as they take their A-Game to Lucas Oil Stadium come November should they stay the course and earn that right. Right now, Michigan appears to be the favorites to take the Legends Division, particularly given a home matchup against prime competition Nebraska. The Wolverines (who don’t face Wisconsin this year) sit at 13th in the Sagarin Elo rankings, and would be a lock for top-10 status should the reach the Big Ten Championship undefeated and possibly even with one loss. Even if it is a rematch with Nebraska in the championship game, they sit at 19th in the rankings and would likely be a top-15 opponent at that point.
The Badgers should pick up another three top-20 opponents and could add two top-10 opponents to their schedule by the end of the year, not to mention another nine wins (with a loss, the whole discussion is moot anyway). Meanwhile, Boise will be adding patsy after patsy to their schedule. TCU is their only conference opponent in the top 30, and only Air Force and San Diego State are in the top 100, which will slowly but surely chip away at their rankings in every poll.
One of Oklahoma or Oklahoma State will fall in a season finale Bedlam Battle, as will one of LSU and Alabama in a November 5th matchup to determine the fate of the SEC West. The Badgers still have to rely on one of the winners of these contests losing to make the National Championship game, but such was true before any revelations of a number six ranking in the season’s first BCS standings.
The Wisconsin Badgers may not be where their faithful fans hope to see them in the initial BCS standings to come out next week, but that’s OK. Keep in mind that the early season is the worst possible time for the Badgers according to the computers, and due to the composition of the season and the formulae used in the computer rankings, there is nowhere for Wisconsin to go but up should they keep winning.