Wisconsin is one game outside of the top-4 in the Big Ten standings, and this matters a lot. The top four teams get byes for the first three days of the tournament. It's often referred to as the "double-bye" because of years in the past, but really it's skipping the first three rounds of the tournament as the Big Ten lets all 18 men's basketball teams play, and 16-18 are playing play-in games or round one games.
Wisconsin is at 11-5 in the Big Ten behind three teams at 12-4: Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue. The Badgers hold the tie-breaker over one of those teams: Michigan State. As the season winds down and there are only about four games left for each team, there are two matchups this week that could ultimately dictate the path to that top-4 seed for Wisconsin: Purdue vs. Michigan State and Michigan vs. Illinois.
Michigan vs. Illinois could open a door for Wisconsin in the Big Ten Standings
First, let's address why the Illinois game matters. Wisconsin also holds the tie-breaker over the Fighting Illini. The Ilini are really about 1.5 games ahead of Wisconsin right now with a record of 13-4 in the Big Ten. Illinois only has three games left. If the Fighting Illini loses to Michigan, it actually creates another pathway into that top-4 seed for Wisconsin.
The most important swing game for the Badgers (this week) is the Michigan State vs. Purdue game. Those two teams are tied in the Big Ten standings and have yet to play each other this season. So, it matters for each team, but it opens the door wide for Wisconsin if either loses.
Michigan State vs. Purdue is a big swing game in the Big Ten standings
What should Wisconsin fans root for? The clearest path is Michigan State losing, as tying with the Spartans in the standings leads to a Wisconsin win in the tiebreaker. However, Purdue losing would help slightly, too. Wisconsin still has a game against Purdue, and if they can beat Purdue, not only does that help them a lot because Purdue would now have two losses in their final four games, but it would also give them the tie-breaker win.
Why would the Badgers have the tie-breaker win over Purdue even though they split 1-1 on the season (in this scenario)? By splitting with Purdue (if that happens), the next tiebreaker is record against the top team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is the only Big Ten team to beat Michigan, and that will push them over the hump against the Boilermakers.
How do you root? Depends on who you hate more and how you think Wisconsin can handle business against Purdue. The easy path is Michigan State loss, but there is another doorway with Purdue losing.