Why can’t Gabe Carimi be an NFL left tackle?

I was reading a column by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. in which he sizes up the progress each team has made in the NFL offseason (which is basically limited to the draft, thanks to the lockout), this one focusing on the NFC North (note: ESPN Insider access required). Naturally, such a discussion prominently features the Chicago Bears’ first-round pick, Gabe Carimi.

Carimi stepped into the left tackle position vacated by All-American Joe Thomas, who was drafted with the 3rd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Thomas was an outstanding player at Wisconsin, and I must admit to worrying how the Badgers would replace him after he was drafted. That was the a mistake on my part, and marked the last time I ever worried about the Badger offensive line falling off from season to season. Carimi was a stellar lineman from the get-go, earning second-team Freshman All-American and honorable mention Sophomore All-American honors. In his junior year, Carimi was first-team All-Big Ten, followed by an avalanche of awards in his senior season. Outland Trophy winner. First-team All-American. Marty Glickman Male Jewish Athlete of the Year Award (presented in 2011). The list goes on.

It surprises me, then, to hear such frequent discussion on Carimi’s future position in the NFL. Joe Thomas was a shoo-in at left tackle for the Browns; he’s been a Pro-Bowl selection every year of his career. Carimi was obviously drafted far later than Thomas, but he was still considered at least a top-3 offensive tackle prospect in his class. Yet the certainty that followed Thomas’ selection escapes Carimi. In the Senior Bowl, he worked out at offensive guard. Some have speculated that he may not be capable of playing the blind side, projecting him rather as a right tackle.

I’m not sure I understand where the hesitation is coming from. I’ve been making lots of comparisons to Joe Thomas, which isn’t exactly fair or even wise, since assuming Carimi will make the Pro-Bowl in his first season is unreasonable. But how well does Carimi actually stack up with his accomplished predecessor? Let’s take a closer look.

First, here are the combine results for both Thomas and Carimi:

Note: Carimi did not participate in the 3-cone or 20-yard shuttle drills

All things considered, Carimi and Thomas graded out with extremely similar results at the NFL Combine. The biggest discrepancy is Thomas’ superior 40-yard dash time, but the 10-yard split is far more important than overall time for offensive tackles, and those figures are nearly identical.

What about the college performance of each player? Such a thing is difficult enough to compare for a position with measurable statistics–the offensive line’s success is essentially defined by what the quarterback and running backs do. But that’s what we’re stuck with, so we might as well use it. By most all accounts, Carimi’s 2010 offense was far more productive than Thomas’ 2006 unit. On the ground, the 2010 Wisconsin offense averaged 5.47 ypc, compared to 3.92 in 2006. Carimi’s squad also scored twice as many touchdowns–twice as many!–as Thomas’. Of course, those comparisons are only as valuable as the comparison between the respective backfields. Given the choice between the P.J. Hill-Lance Smith combo or last year’s trio of Clay-White-Ball, I expect most would choose the latter. Throw in the question of how involved Thomas and Carimi actually were in each and every play the Badgers ran, and this is truly a numeric nightmare of statistical significance. But the advantage lent to Carimi by his team’s rushing statistics is so significant we can, at the very least, conclude that it offers no detriment to his ability.

What about pass-blocking? Again, we’re severely limited by the data available. The easiest at-a-glance comparison would probably be sacks allowed, for which there is again no contest between the lines anchored by Carimi and Thomas. In 2010, the Badgers allowed only 14 sacks, compared to 27 allowed by the 2006 O-line. Again, we’re stuck using a stat influenced by the four other guys on the line–plus the quarterback behind them–to grade one player, but the difference is again so tilted in Carimi’s favor that it at least can’t reasonably hurt him.

Carimi himself has also highlighted the competition he faced during his senior year. During a combine interview session, Carimi mentions having gone against four potential first-round draft picks, all excellent pass rushers, in Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Jordan, and teammate J.J. Watt. I’m no scout, but I watched every game the Badgers played last season, and Carimi never came close to losing his matchup.

By my estimation, none of the factors I’ve highlighted so far offer any evidence to support the claim that Gabe Carimi can’t play LT in the NFL. Thus we’re left with scouting reports that indicate otherwise as our primary evidence. Of course, scouting reports are invariably conflicted. Where ESPN sees “lacks ideal foot quickness and athleticism,” CBS Sports sees “elite agility and nimble feet.”

I don’t have access to exhaustive video evidence, nor would I, frankly, have any idea what to look for if I did. Still, I remain unconvinced by Carimi’s detractors. Gabe may never be quite as good as Joe Thomas; few even in the NFL are. But if there is strong evidence to suggest that he can’t handle the left tackle position as a professional, it escapes me. Instead my chief concern,  as a Packer fan, is that the Bears snagged themselves a player who will be a steadying presence guarding Jay Cutler’s back for many years to come. But then I remember that it’s Jay Cutler, and I feel better.