Game Five Preview: Nebraska

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Two top ten teams at Camp Randall Stadium. College Gameday opening Saturday from Bascom Hill.

Yeah. This one’s big.

The Badgers have never had a better chance to make a claim at a National Championship. Win this game, and the dream isn’t just alive. Win this game and the dream has a pulse, and it’s living, breathing, and running straight to New Orleans.

But beyond metaphors, there’s an actual game to played on an actual football field. Taylor Martinez and the Cornhuskers bring a number eight ranking and a 4-0 record — not to mention one of the largest road crowds Madison has ever seen — into Camp Randall Stadium. The offense is billed as one of the nation’s best, dropping just under 43 points per game as it ravaged a hapless non-conference schedule. The defense — the “blackshirts” — are legendary for their skill and power.

Except… something isn’t quite right so far in 2011. In games against Chattanooga, Fresno State, Washington and Wyoming, Nebraska is allowing 22 points per game. It’s not like these point totals are coming against juggernauts, either — Washington, the most prolific of these offenses so far, ranks 42nd in points per game and 38th in S&P+. S&P+ measures offensive efficiency based on success rate of plays and points scored per play and then adjusts for opponent (more here). Regardless of how you figure it, Nebraska’s defense hasn’t measured up to the legend of the blackshirt against some rather mediocre offenses.

If the Nebraska defense is supposed to be an advantage, it’s because of something they haven’t shown on the field so far. It’s the Wisconsin defense which has shown itself to be a wall. Sure, the Badgers have faced cupcakes of their own, but the difference in the offensive talent the two teams have faced isn’t much different.

When we factor in the 13.5 extra points Nebraska has allowed its opponents compared to Wisconsin (22.0 points allowed per game against 8.5) it becomes apparent that the valuing of S&P+ is correct — both teams have faced similarly talented offenses. Simply put, if the Nebraska defense is better than Wisconsin’s, they have yet to prove it — S&P has the Badgers’ defense ranked 12th, compared to the Huskers’ 15th.

And then there’s the offense. Taylor Martinez can be a skeptical. He has NFL speed. But due to his flaws as a passer, the Nebraska offense just doesn’t strike fear as much as the Russell Wilson-led attack does. The Badgers are scoring 6 points more per game. The startling thing? Nebraska’s run-heavy offense simply doesn’t measure up when it comes to any sort of advanced look — the Huskers offense ranks 55th in S&P+. Why? They’ve scored a ton of points, and again, the talent they’ve played is similar to the talent the Badgers have played, and Wisconsin ranks fourth. So we need to take a closer look.

The Badgers and the Huskers have each attempted roughly 67 plays in their average game this year. The Badgers have scored 48.5 points on those plays, the Huskers 42.8. That’s a moderate difference, but the bigger difference comes in yards. The Badgers are outgaining Nebraska by nearly 100 yards (532 to 439) on those 67 plays, a difference of 1.4 yards per play. That might not seem like a big deal, but that’s nearly a 20% difference, and that’s why Nebraska’s numbers pale in comparison.

The Huskers have their fair share of elite talent. Taylor Martinez, Rex Burkhead, Jared Crick, Cameron Meredith. These names should scare Badger fans. But do they scare any more than Russell Wilson, Montee Ball, Chris Borland, and Nick Toon?

Right now, the Badgers are the ones who have put together the best product on the field. The Badgers are the team at home. The Badgers are the team with the Heisman contender and the steamrolling offense and the team that hasn’t allowed more than 10 points per game. The Badgers have the home field and the Camp Randall crowd behind them, a crowd that hasn’t witnessed a loss since 2009. A crowd that witnessed a number one fall under similar circumstances.

The Vegas spread on this game was 10 points in favor of Wisconsin as of posting time. The projection based on the Football Outsiders numbers has the Badgers winning by a whopping 24 points.

I have spent a good amount of time since those numbers came out trying to find a reason why I shouldn’t believe them. I simply cannot find one. The Wisconsin Badgers should win tomorrow, and they could win big.

Then the real fun begins.