Alternate Title: Let’s Talk About Notre Dame
If it weren’t for Michigan State’s 28-14 victory over Michigan last week, Saturday’s contest in East Lansing would just be yet another Badger game against another unranked foe. But in beating the Wolverines, the Spartans vanquished the 11th-ranked team in the country last week, and by that virtue they now own the number-16 ranking and have prompted a few national analysts to place the Wisconsin Badgers on upset alert.
The Spartans, however, have looked a bit bipolar this season. Mark Dantonio’s squad looked excellent in the game against Michigan and also put up big numbers on non-conference foes from the FCS, the Sun Belt, and the MAC. In the other two games, the Spartans were wholly unimpressive — particularly on offense — in scoring 23 combined points in games against Ohio State and Notre Dame (the only loss on the season).
The question when we evaluate Michigan State (and therefore, given Michigan’s relative lack of quality opponents, the Wolverines as well) basically boils down to this: how good is Notre Dame? Are the Irish a good enough team to justify the previously high ranking for Michigan (the main justification for Michigan State’s upset status) or an 18-point road loss for the Spartans?
Despite Notre Dame’s recent status as a bit of a national punchline — which exists largely due to Lou Holtz’s (among others) rather Swerkskian treatment of the Irish — the team has not been a pushover for a few years now. No, a Sun Bowl victory does not strike fear in the hearts of opponents, but the Irish have steadily improved under Brian Kelly. This season, the yardage numbers are striking: the Irish have outgained opponents by 100 yards per game (in roughly the same number of plays) and have outscored opponents by 11 points per game.
The answer is, pretty plainly, despite the record, Notre Dame looks like a much better team than anybody is giving credit for. They are almost certainly good enough to be ranked — and if they aren’t, there is no explanation for Michigan’s meteoric rise to the top 11 — and their turnover issues simply aren’t predictive enough to make up for their ridiculous yardage numbers.
The reason we care about Notre Dame is because the skill level of the Irish means the Wisconsin Badgers should have a certain amount of concern over the skill level of Michigan State. The measurement of Michigan State against Michigan is meaningless if Notre Dame isn’t actually good. But they are, and as such we can be reasonably confident in our assessment of Michigan State’s ability to stop the ball well enough to win most games.
But this, of course, is not “most games.” The Badgers are ranked in the top six in any respectable ranking of football skill. They have, by nearly any measure, the most impressive offense in college football.
Points per game? First.
Yards per play? First.
First down rate? First.
Available yards gained? First.
Drives averaging 10 yards per play? First.
Offensive efficiency? First.
S&P+? First.
The Michigan State defense now hangs its hat on its performance against the Michigan Wolverines — a very good offense, although one which may have been impacted by nicks to Denard Robinson. But the Wolverines simply have not approached the production of the Badgers. Wisconsin outgains Michigan by nearly a full yard per play. Outscores them by 15.6 points per game. And, most striking, the difference between Wisconsin and Michigan in terms of S&P+ is just as large as the difference between Michigan and Western Michigan.
Despite the lack of superficially challenging foes on the schedule, the Wisconsin defense has stopped a superior offense to the one presented by Michigan State. Although Soldier Field certainly does not qualify as a true road test for the Badgers, it was not the cozy confines of Camp Randall either, and the Badgers held Chandler Harnish and Northern Illinois — a team which has scored 40 points on every single team it has faced without a motion W on the helmet — to a measly seven points. And even with a schedule adjustment like the one in the aforementioned S&P+, the Huskies still rank well on offense — their 27th ranking bests Michigan State by 15 spots.
Should the Badgers worry? As Michigan State showed last week against Michigan, they can play shutdown football and their offense can put enough points on the board to make them competitive. Both units were more than enough to shut down Scott Tolzien and a would-be perfect season for the Badgers last season.
Russell Wilson is not Scott Tolzien. And this Badgers defense is not the same porous unit which traveled to East Lansing one year prior. The Badgers are not guaranteed a victory in this game as they seemingly were in their previous six, but the ball is firmly in their court. Regardless of who has possession, the Badgers will have the superior unit on the field. And that should mean a seventh Badger victory when all is said and done Saturday night.