Remember when Illinois was 6-0?
There was a time when it wasn’t the road trips to East Lansing or Columbus which would be the defining moments of the 2011 Wisconsin Badgers football season. Entering October, it was a 4-0 (and then 5-0, and then 6-0) Illinois, with a strong out-of-conference victory against Arizona State, which loomed as the potential big road test for Wisconsin.
But much can change in six weeks. The Badgers head into Champaign with two losses and effectively must win to keep the hopes of a division championship alive, forget a national championship. As disappointing as the Badgers’ season may end up being (especially as BCS hopefuls drop left and right around us), at least a Rose Bowl is still at stake. For the Illini, the question isn’t about the quality of bowl they will attend this year. Instead, the question is whether they can break their four-game losing streak before the postseason.
Should we be surprised about the struggles of Ron Zook’s team? Perhaps not, when we look at how the Illini failed to make blowouts of games against lesser opponents. They did manage to stomp on FCS foe South Dakota State by a 56-3 score, but struggled against FBS opponents of varying quality. Like Wisconsin, Illinois opened with five home games, four against FBS opponents. Unlike Wisconsin, most of these games were close, at least at some point beyond the coin toss.
Illinois won these four FBS games by a combined score of 111-84, or by 5.4 points per game. Although the three-point victory against Arizona State still carries some weight despite a similar slide by the Sun Devils (who now sit at 6-4 and behind the underwhelming UCLA Bruins in the Pac-12 South), the rest of the Illini’s first half schedule is underwhelming. The other victories came against Arkansas State (18 points), Western Michigan (three) and Northwestern (three). The Illini simply weren’t playing that well prior to their encounters with the meat of the conference schedule, and having to travel on the road for three of their four losses hasn’t helped anything.
This isn’t to say the Illini don’t have the talent to make a game out of this one on Saturday. A.J. Jenkins is one of the nation’s best receivers, with 76 receptions and 1,143 yards to his credit already. Donovonn Young and Troy Pollard have combined to average a Montee Ball-esque 6.4 yards per carry. The defense has been sharp, holding teams to under 20 points per game. The statistical leader is defensive end Whitney Mercilus (also the leader in awesome last names), the owner of 12.5 sacks in the first 10 games.
But can the Illini defense hold up to the sheer amount of playmakers the Wisconsin offense brings to the table? By a few measures (most notably this one from Football Outsiders), the Badgers offense is the best in the nation. The two hiccups at Michigan State and Ohio State largely lie on the defense and (even more so) the special teams. The Wisconsin offense can score on the ground, it can score in the air, and it can score in a hurry.
The only other top-25 offense on the Illini schedule so far this year has been Michigan. The Illinois defense actually managed to shut down Robinson a bit — he only managed 92 yards passing and 30 yards rushing. It was the emergence of running back Fitzgerald Touissant which limited Robinson more than anything, however. Despite usually being the focal point of the offense, Robinson only accounted for 22 action plays. Toussaint simply demanded the ball through his performance, racking up 192 yards and a touchdown as the Wolverines rolled to a 31-14 victory. It was the highest point total allowed by the Illini on the season as well as the largest margin of defeat.
The combination of Ball and Wilson far outclasses anything the Michigan offense — particularly minus the spread, which went out the door along with Rich Rodriguez — has to offer. Ball is clearly one of the top running backs in the nation and has built a statistical profile (if not a reputation) to challenge the likes of Trent Richardson. Wilson leads the nation in passing efficiency and yards per attempt and could well best Robinson’s mark of 9.2 yards per pass from last week’s game.
The meltdown is a possibility this Saturday, but just as in the Badgers’ two previous losses, it would take an avalanche of catastrophic mistakes for the Badgers to fall at Champaign. Against a reeling Illinois team and with the sheer amount of talent the Badgers bring to the table, the Badgers should be able to bring home the victory, setting up a game against Penn State for the right to play in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship.