Big Ten/ACC Challenge: Wisconsin takes on North Carolina

The Wisconsin men’s basketball team has been putting together a dream season so far. The Badgers are off to their best start in 15 years and boast a statistical resume that places them among the nation’s elite. However, the true test of talent comes tonight when they meet the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill for a clash of top-10 teams. Tonight, it’s time to wake up.

This game may have lost a bit of luster after North Carolina fell to UNLV last Saturday and dropped to #5 in the rankings, but don’t let that fool you–the Tar Heels have as much talent as any team in the nation and plenty of experience to boot, thanks to decisions by Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Tyler Zeller to spurn the NBA draft last summer. If BYU was a step above the competition Wisconsin had faced up to that point, UNC is a five-story elevator ride above them.

Great moments are born of great opportunity. That’s what the Badgers have here tonight. Win, and a top-5 ranking is hardly out of the question. Win, and Ohio State starts looking in the rear-view mirror at a conference contender who’s a whole lot closer than it appears. Win, and Bo Ryan, Jordan Taylor, and Jared Berggren’s post game start getting a whole lot more attention.

It’s not going to be easy, but it’s certainly not impossible. Let’s break down the contest to see what Wisconsin needs to do to pull an impressive upset.

If you’ve read any preview coverage of this game anywhere ever, you’ve probably seen the phrase “contrast of styles”. North Carolina ranks as the 5th-fastest team in the country according to adjusted tempo, while the Badgers haven’t budged from the bottom of that list. But simply saying one team plays fast while the other plays slow drastically oversimplifies the issue. Tempo isn’t a pure trait–it’s a product of many different components.

The Badgers play “slow” because they place immense value on individual possessions, patiently and methodically moving the ball in an effort to find a high-percentage shot. So far, the offense has done so wonderfully, clocking in with the 4th-highest effective FG% (which adjusts for the value of three-point shots) in the country. Wisconsin relies very little on open-court offense, instead favoring strong rebounders at every position. While that may cut down on transition opportunities, the added emphasis on defensive rebounding also minimizes second-shot attempts for opponents.

North Carolina, meanwhile, thrives in the open court, taking advantage of super-athletic players who can handle the ball and throw down in transition. Most of their defensive rebounding comes from interior players who move the ball to releasing players very quickly. As a result, they rank near the middle of the pack in defensive rebound rate, but make up for it by converting many of their opponent’s misses into easy points. While Wisconsin’s quintessential high-percentage shot is a wide-open three-pointer off a ball swing, North Carolina’s is a posterizing dunk over a backpedalling defender.

That’s just a sampling of the stark contrast this game will provide. Looking over each team’s resume, it’s incredible how their strengths and weaknesses line up. This makes it crucial for both to establish a tempo and style within their own comfort zones, but assuming neither is able to do so perfectly (which is the safest assumption), the real key will be which team is able to adapt most effectively to their opponent’s style.

First and foremost for Wisconsin, they have to be careful with the ball. The Badgers’ famously low turnover rate will be very helpful in limiting transition opportunities for the Tar Heels, but even something as seemingly innocuous as a long rebound can quickly turn into a run-out for North Carolina. The Badgers have strong rebounders in their backcourt, but every bounce has the potential to change the game.

If you’re looking for something the Badgers need to do that they haven’t already been excelling at, how about earning and making free throws? I hesitate to say the Badgers are bad at drawing fouls–their low FTA/FGA is partly a product of their offensive system, in which plenty of shots are taken totally undefended–but that’s probably the most accurate word. No system can take all the credit for a team that ranks dead last in free-throw rate. The Badgers just aren’t built to draw fouls consistently. Without a lot of quickness at the point or on the wings, Wisconsin often has a difficult time taking defenders one-on-one off the dribble. Instead, it will probably fall on the interior players to assert themselves–Jared Berggren and Jordan Taylor both have excellent post games (particularly Taylor, given his position, but also Berggren, given my obsession with him). And to be fair, the Badgers don’t commit many fouls themselves, a key part of the whole “don’t give them any easy points” strategy. The Tar Heels have length, speed, and athleticism from 1-5, though, so it will be no easy task.

We’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop when it comes to Wisconsin’s three-point shooting, but a solid performance from behind the arc could be crucial to taking down North Carolina. UNC allowed UNLV to shoot 40% from deep in their only loss, though they’ve been above average defending the three this year. If Wisconsin can execute a solid inside-out game, those three point shots should be available; if they continue to defy statistical regression, that hot shooting could carry the day.

Defensively, the interior is likely to feel most of the pressure. The Tar Heels don’t rely heavily on three-pointers, so when North Carolina does go into half-court sets, they’re probably taking the ball to the rack. There are matchup nightmares at the SF and PF positions, too. Ryan Evans has been Wisconsin’s best individual defender this year, and should probably draw Harrison Barnes (who is expected to play despite a rolled ankle) for a defensive assignment. But that presumably leaves Mike Bruesewitz as the starting counterpart to John Henson, who would presumably eat him alive. Switch out a taller defender like Frank Kaminsky and the offense is sure to take a hit. It’ll be a strategic personnel war all night between Bo Ryan and Roy Williams, but there’s no doubt Williams has more raw ability to throw out on the court.

The Big Ten got off to an excellent start yesterday, with Ohio State’s demolition of Duke highlighting a 4-2 opening night of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. A win in Chapel Hill would go a long way toward cementing Wisconsin near the top of its conference and the national rankings. North Carolina is stocked with future first-round NBA draft picks; Wisconsin is a machine made of discount parts. But it’s a well-made machine, kept running smoothly by an excellent mechanic. It’s not good versus evil, but this collision of ying-yang styles should be one hell of a game.