Wisconsin Badgers vs. Maryland: Pre-Game Predictions and Analysis

A look at the Wisconsin Badgers matchup with Maryland

The Wisconsin Badgers are riding a 6-game winning streak, but that streak is in major jeopardy against the #2 team in the nation, Maryland (#6 per Ken Pomeroy).

Can Bucky make it 7 in a row? After all, the Badgers narrowly lost to Maryland at home just before the recent win streak. My Magic Eight Ball says: Outlook Not So Good.

Unfortunately, Wisconsin is facing the power of home court advantage. One analysis of home court advantage in college basketball shows that Maryland enjoys a 4.4 point edge*. If you do a very simple prediction by adding the home court advantage to the 3-point margin from the last game, you come up with a 7.4 point win by Maryland.

How does that simple prediction compare? It turns out that it matches up surprisingly well. Pomeroy thinks that we’ll see a 9-point Maryland victory, with a 15% chance of a Badger upset. I show a margin of 7 points, with Maryland winning 71-64. My Magic Eight Ball seems to be on to something.

Let’s take a look at the prediction graph:

Maryland pre game - 2-13-16 /

Maryland has advantages pretty much across the board. The Badgers will take more 2-pointers and make slightly more, but at a worse percentage. They rate to get more offensive rebounds and steals, as well. Everything else favors Maryland. As we saw, last game, winning the 3-point and free throw game is a good path to a convincing overall win.

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Iin my pre-game article on Nebraska, I did a comparison using conference-only stats. The overall prediction didn’t change much, but some of the components did. The change to Greg Gard has meant a change in some philosophies, so I would expect the Badgers to take and make more 3-pointers, grab fewer offensive rebounds, and nab more steals than predicted.

I’m working on a pre-game player analysis tool as well, but it isn’t ready for prime-time, so I’ll just note a couple things. One of the more interesting aspects of Maryland is that they aren’t driven by Melo Trimble – instead, Diamond Stone and Robert Carter are the win-engines for the Terrapins. They are, according to Pomeroy, the 3rd and 4th best players in the Big Ten, respectively.

The Badgers of last year knew the feeling, having had the 1st, 3rd and 4th best players in the conference. If only Hayes were repeating his 4th best player finish from last season. I think his drop from 55.7% to 44.2% Effective Field Goal Percentage is largely to blame. I’ll take a deeper look at him at some point, but it’s safe to say that the change to his shooting form didn’t really work out so well.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

Another aspect of the game will be the Badgers’ inside game versus the #1 shot blocking team in the Big Ten. Maryland sends back nearly 15% of 2-point shots in conference play. I brought this up with Ohio State’s excellent interior defense in my preview of that game, but it didn’t seem to have an impact on Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes, inside. Maryland is taller than Ohio State with better shot-blockers, though, so Happ and Hayes will need to be extra slithery with their moves to avoid Maryland’s length.

As always, let me know in the comments if there is anything that you’d like my to analyze. Now, let’s play the game!

Next: Badgers-Terrapins Game Info, Odds and More

* The Badgers had the 6th best home court advantage in the country in the 2012 analysis, which is up there with Toledo and a bunch of teams that play at high elevation, which provides a natural home court advantage. I’m not sure how the Badgers have come by their big home court edge, but it’s real and it’s spectacular!

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