Wisconsin Basketball: Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios

The Wisconsin basketball team still has a shot at the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament

*Note: for an updated version of the Badgers’ Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios heading into their final game of the season, follow this link.

Heading into the final week of college basketball’s regular season, the top of the Big Ten Conference has the potential to test the rigorous seeding tiebreaker rules as a five-way tie atop the conference is plausible. The close conference race means the Wisconsin basketball team could hold anywhere from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.

Ahead of Tuesday’s conference action, the Indiana Hoosiers lead the conference with a 13-3 Big Ten record, while Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa and Maryland all sit two games behind at 11-5. Ohio State (11-6), Purdue (10-6) and Michigan (11-7) round out the Big Ten teams with winning records.

Indiana has the best chance at the No. 1 overall seed. With that 13-3 conference record, the Hoosiers need just one win to claim sole possession of the Big Ten title and the No. 1 seed in the tournament, but face tough competition down the road against Iowa Tuesday night and Maryland Sunday afternoon. If Indiana goes 1-1 or 2-0 over that stretch, they win the Big Ten outright and earn the No.1 seed in the tournament.

Should Indiana lose both games, things would get very interesting for several teams at the top of the conference.

With Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland and Wisconsin all just two games behind the Hoosiers, scenarios exist that could land the Hoosiers all the way down at the five-seed, even though they would clinch a share of the title.

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That’s because that scenario involves a five-way tie for first place with tiebreakers that leave the Hoosiers on the bottom.

In that scenario, the Badgers, yes, the once 1-4 in conference play Badgers, would come out with the No. 2 overall seed.

If Indiana drops both of its games, Wisconsin wins both of its games, and Michigan State, Maryland and Iowa each win out, all five teams would have identical 13-5 records. Wisconsin’s collective 4-3 record against those teams in that scenario would place the Badgers in second just behind the Maryland Terrapins, who at 3-2 in that scenario against those top teams, would have the best winning percentage.

Iowa and Michigan State would follow with 3-3 records over those top teams (although not necessarily in that order, even though Iowa is 2-0 over MSU…the tiebreakers get VERY complicated), and Indiana, who was the first to clinch a share of the Big Ten title, would have the five-seed with a 2-4 record against teams tied at the top of the conference.

Now, that’s an extreme scenario, but not entirely impossible. So let’s throw one more twist in that would benefit the Badgers.

If we keep the exact same scenario except if Maryland were to defeat Indiana in the final game of the season but fall to Illinois on Thursday, that would leave the Terrapins with a 12-6 record and put them out of the tiebreak while still giving Indiana a second loss to force the Hoosiers into the tiebreaker.

That would mean the Badgers win the No. 1 overall seed along with a share of the Big Ten title, with Iowa, Michigan State and Indiana also in the top four.

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Again, complicated scenarios with a lot of moving pieces, but we’ve seen plenty of crazy things happen this season and there’s nothing to suggest more chaos won’t continue.

While Wisconsin can theoretically earn a No. 1 seed in the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario puts the Badgers at 11-7, which would mean at worst the seven-seed in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.

For the Badgers, all they can control is closing out the season with wins over both Minnesota and Purdue. If the Badgers finish with a 13-5 Big Ten record, they will guarantee a spot in the top four and will earn a double-bye in the upcoming tournament.

The Badgers could even finish 1-1 over their final two games and still finish in the top four of the conference if Maryland, Michigan State or Iowa lose a game.

With only one week left in the regular season, it’s amazing how many different scenarios exist that could shake up the top of the Big Ten. The teams know they just need to focus on winning their next games. As for us fans, we just have to sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

Next: Badgers a 7-Seed in Lunardi's Latest

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