Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers: Pre-Game Predictions

The Wisconsin Badgers head across the border to face Minnesota tonight

Entering this game, the Wisconsin Badgers are in a three-way tie for second in the Big Ten with Michigan State and Maryland. There is no path to the regular season title, as Indiana has the in the bag. However, let’s take a look at where the Wisconsin Badgers might finish the season.

As a lawyer, I have been trained to look at the worst case scenario, which is losing the last two games while every team in the vicinity wins (with Iowa beating Michigan).

Under that scenario, the Badgers finish 7th in the Big Ten. The best case scenario is to win out with as many teams as possible losing.

This leaves Wisconsin, alone, in 2nd place. In fact, if the team wins out, only one loss by Maryland and Michigan State would give the best case scenario and none of the other games matter.

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The reality will likely be somewhere in between. Ken Pomeroy predicts that the Badgers will end up in a 4-way tie for 3rd place.

It’s hard to imagine Michigan State losing either of their final games, and the Badgers seem most likely to split, so I think it’s going to be a matter of how many teams the Badgers tie for 3rd place.

Of course, the split that I’m assuming relies largely on beating the Gophers, tonight – a win guarantees a tie for 3rd place, which would continue the streak of finishing 4th or better in conference.

Pomeroy expects at 69-62 Badger win, with a 23% chance of an upset. For the second game in a row, my predictions are much more pessimistic, with a 67-67 tie (Adjusted Points) or a 66-65 loss (Component Points).

Minnesota - pre-game - 3-2-16 /

As you can see, there is very little separating these two teams in any area, with neither team enjoying more than an 8% edge in any category.

Minnesota - pre-game efficiency - 3-2-16 /

The big caveat, here, is the Badgers and their 3-point shooting. This prediction relies on season-long stats, and predicts that the Badgers take 21 threes and make 35.4% of them, as you can see, below.

Since conference play began, though, the Wisconsin Badgers have increased their shots from beyond the arc by 10% and are making 37.6% of them.

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Plugging those numbers in, instead, we would see an uptick in point margin of almost 4 points, which would make the Badgers 4-point favorites, just by adjusting for improved three-point shooting.

Turning to the Minnesota players, they only have two who are substantially above average on offense – Joey King and Jordan Murphy. King is a lower usage player, so, although he is crazy efficient, he isn’t likely to single-handedly lead the Gophers to victory. Murphy is more of a concern, because he is higher usage and has a higher ceiling. It’ll be interesting to see who guards him.

On defense, Murphy is the only above-average player, which makes him all the more worrisome. I’m hoping for some foul trouble.

I predict a Wisconsin Badgers win, but it might be a little more difficult that we expect.

Next: Wisconsin-Minnesota Game Info, Odds and More

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