Wisconsin Basketball: Badgers Chances at a Deep NCAA Tournament Run

The Wisconsin basketball team has a .4 percent chance of winning the NCAA Tournament

Need help filling out your bracket or want to see how the Wisconsin basketball team could fare in the upcoming NCAA Tournament?

Luckily, the folks over at FiveThirtyEight have given us a complete breakdown of the teams in the tournament and their chances to win in each round.

From the data we see that one-seed Kansas has the highest probability to win it all at 19 percent. Fellow one seeds UNC and Virginia follow at 15 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

Michigan State is the first non-one seed in the probability rankings, coming in fourth in the list with a probability of nine percent. Coupled with the data that FiveThirtyEight gives the fourth one-seed Oregon Ducks just a 3 percent chance to win it all, it looks the Ducks were over-ranked.

Of course, these are only projections for win probability, which have as much to do with potential opponents as they do with the teams themselves.

Moving on to the Badgers’ chances, Wisconsin has a win probability of less than one percent to win it all. Round by round projections give them a decent chance at making a nice run, however.

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FiveThirtyEight gives the Badgers a 63 percent chance to emerge victorious in its opening game against Pittsburgh, and a 27 percent chance to win in round two and make the Sweet Sixteen.

There FiveThirtyEight gives the Badgers an 11 percent chance to reach the elite eight, a 3-percent chance to reach the Final Four, and a 1-percent chance to get to the National Championship game, where they have a .4 percent chance to win it all.

Compared to other seven seeds, the Badgers have one of the better draws in the tournament. Wisconsin, who is the 25th overall seed in the tournament (the top seven-seed), has the second-best win probability of the seven seeds in the tournament and the 27th-best win probability overall.

They sit just behind the Iowa Hawkeyes in that capacity. Iowa plays 10-seed Temple in the first round with a potential matchup against Villanova looming. The Hawkeyes are the 27th overall seed, and have the 24th-best win probability in the tournament, per FiveThirtyEight.

Behind the Badgers, Dayton then Oregon State round out the seven seeds and their chances at making a deep run.

Dayton, the 26th-overall seed, has the 34th-best probability at a deep run, while 28th-overall seed Oregon State has the 51st-best win probability.

Dayton plays 10-seed Syracuse to open in the Midwest Region, and faces a potential matchup with two-seed Michigan State in the second round. Oregon State plays 10-seed VCU to open in the West Region, and would likely see two-seed Oklahoma in round two.

Next: A Look at the Badgers Road to the Final Four

Again, keep in mind that these are merely projections based on win probabilities, so they will be continually updated live. Keep an eye out on FiveThirtyEight for updates as the tournament progresses.

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