Wisconsin Football: ESPN FPI projects Badgers record

ESPN’s Football Power Index projects Wisconsin football to have a good season, but not a great season.

Wisconsin football is one of the most intriguing programs in the nation. After going toe-to-toe with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, then playing like it was a tier above Miami in the Orange Bowl, Wisconsin has high expectations for 2018. ESPN’s FPI is a model that is used to predict and project several different statistics in college football. Today, we’ll look at what ESPN thinks Wisconsin will do.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – DECEMBER 02: Quarterback Alex Hornibrook #12 of the Wisconsin Badgers looks to pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first quarter of the Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 2, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

Overall FPI ranking

The Badgers come it at a disappointing 12th here. They’re behind some notable teams, but most disappointing is Michigan State and Michigan, who occupy the two spots ahead of the Badgers. Penn State and Ohio State also come ahead of the Badgers in the rankings. If Wisconsin takes care of business in the regular season, the final polls won’t finish this way. That’s what ultimately matters here.

Win/Loss record

The FPI projects Wisconsin to finish with a record of 9.6 wins and 2.9 losses. There are 12 regular season games, the Big Ten Championship being the 13th, and a bowl game being the 14th. ESPN runs 10,000 simulations, according to their website, for these stats. So some scenarios see the Badgers not making the Big Ten Championship. It’s very unlikely for that to happen, considering the strength of the West division.

Wisconsin’s losses are the big number here. Almost three losses is quite a lot. It’s easy to see those three being at Michigan, at Penn State and against whoever the Badgers face in the Big Ten Championship. But that feels lazy. Wisconsin can absolutely win any (or all) of those games. The two extremes, where the Badgers go 0-3 or 3-0 in those situations are the most unlikely. If they land somewhere in the middle, with the big one being a win in the Big Ten Championship, that’s what will matter.

Conference win%

This isn’t the overall winning percentage in conference, but instead, the likelihood that each team will win the conference. Wisconsin comes in with a respectable 24.5%, while Ohio State is only slightly ahead at 26.9%. Penn State (16.5%), Michigan State (13.3%) and Michigan (9.3%) are all significantly lower than the Badgers and Buckeyes. If you’re keeping score at home, those five teams make up over 90% of the scenarios for the Big Ten winner. It’s very unlikely to be anybody else.

Wisconsin’s high number in this area is certainly due to the division it plays in. The biggest competitor in the West is Iowa, who comes in with a 6.8% chance of winning the conference. If Wisconsin is able to make the Big Ten Championship game, then it’s just a one-game situation to win. We’ve seen how competitive Wisconsin is against the other top programs in the Big Ten, even if it hasn’t gotten the wins in all those games.

Remaining Strength of Schedule

The remaining strength of schedule represents the entire season, as of this moment. Wisconsin’s is ranked 64th in the nation, which is by far the lowest of any team as high as the Badgers in the FPI rankings. Wisconsin is 12th overall in FPI, and the next lowest SOS rating is Oregon (65th) who is ranked 23rd in FPI. After that is Boise State (80th) who is ranked 37th in FPI. In summation, Wisconsin has a pretty weak schedule. The Badgers draw some tough games in conference play this year, but the non-conference slate will still drag the overall reputation of the Badgers schedule down.

Next: Top 10 Wisconsin games since 2010

If the FPI had its way with the college football season, Wisconsin would have a strong year, but it wouldn’t meet expectations. Here’s to proving another doubter wrong, and exceeding even more expectations.