After the huge win over Michigan, Wisconsin Basketball is looking to keep the good times rolling against Illinois. What are the keys to the game, and who wins?
History is definitely on Wisconsin’s side as it makes the trip to Champaign to take on Illinois on Wednesday.
The Badgers have enjoyed more success against the Fighting Illini than just about any other Big Ten foe in recent years, having won thirteen straight contests against them. The last time Wisconsin fell to Illinois was all the way back on January 2, 2011.
Considering how poorly the Fighting Illini have played this season, you have to like the Badgers’ odds of keeping that streak alive. Illinois has lost six of its last seven, with its only conference win coming against Minnesota last week. Though that 95-68 blowout victory over the Golden Gophers was impressive, it also happens to be their only win over a high major team all year long.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is flying high after taking down No. 2 Michigan at the Kohl Center over the weekend in a thriller that will be remembered in Madison for many years to come. After that performance, the Badgers head into Wednesday’s matchup as the heavy favorites to come out of the State Farm Center as the victors at the end of the evening.
Will they get it done and continue to inch their way back up the Big Ten standings?
Projected starters
WISCONSIN (12-6)
G – D’Mitrik Trice – SO (13.9 ppg)
G – Brad Davison- SO (10.3 ppg)
F – Khalil Iverson – SR (4.3 ppg)
F – Nathan Reuvers – SO (8.2 ppg)
C – Ethan Happ – SR (19.8 ppg)
ILLINOIS (5-13)
G – Da’Monte Williams – SO (4.4 ppg)
G – Trent Frazier – SO (14.6 ppg)
G – Ayo Dosunmu – FR (14.2 ppg)
F – Kipper Nichols – JR (7.6 ppg)
F – Giorgi Bezhanishvili – FR (11.0 ppg)
Keys to the game and prediction
Wisconsin’s main objective defensively will be to limit Illinois’ high-scoring backcourt of Trent Frazier and Ayo Dosunmu, who together form one of the top guard duos in the conference. If the Badgers are able to stymie even one of two, the Fighting Illini probably don’t have a chance. I know he has seen his minutes decline as Kobe King has come on strong over the last couple of games, but look for Khalil Iverson to see more time on the court tomorrow as Greg Gard tasks him with shutting the 6’5 Dosunmu down. He may be struggling offensively lately, but I like Iverson’s odds of limiting the freshman’s production.
Other than Frazier and Dosunmu, there’s not much that scares you about Illinois. They don’t shoot the ball well (No. 243 nationally in field goal percentage) and are weak in the post on both sides of the floor, ranking No. 276 in total rebounds and No. 286 in blocks. You can pencil in Ethan Happ for a double-double right now against the Fighting Illini’s freshman big Giorgi Bezhanishvili.
As you would expect from such a poor team, Illinois has also struggled mightily with mental errors this season, ranking No. 248 in the country in turnovers and No. 319 in fouls.
Finally, Illinois is an absolute sieve defensively: their opponents are shooting 47 percent overall (No. 319 in the country), including 53.1 percent from inside the arc (No. 305) and 35.3 percent beyond it (No. 252).
However, Illinois’ home court advantage could give them a shot to pull off the upset. The Fighting Illini have given quality opponents problems in Champaign at times this season, playing No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 19 Ohio State, and No. 2 Michigan all relatively close for most of the game.
That being said, they did ultimately lose each of those contests, including by double digits against the Buckeyes and Wolverines. Ultimately, I’m expecting a similar scenario against the Badgers. Illinois keeps it close in the first half, but Wisconsin begins to pull away early in the second and comes away with a comfy 72-60 victory.
All stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com