Wisconsin Basketball: Badgers draw red-hot Oregon in Round of 64

Wisconsin Basketball kicks off its 2019 NCAA Tournament journey in San Jose Friday against a hot Oregon squad. Which team will advance to the Round of 32?

Let’s start this thing off with the good news: after taking a hiatus from NCAA Tournament for the first time in 20 years in 2017-18, Wisconsin bounced back this season with an impressive fourth-place finish in a loaded Big Ten and is dancing once again. Regardless of what happens this week, the Badgers should be very proud of getting this program back where it belongs, and as a 5-seed, no less.

Unfortunately, Wisconsin drew one of the hottest teams in the entire country in the Round of 64 in Oregon, and the Ducks also happen to match up extremely well with the Badgers.

Like Wisconsin, Oregon missed the Big Dance last season, but Dana Altman’s squad is back with a vengeance after winning the Pac-12 Tournament and thus securing that conference’s automatic bid. The Ducks have been on a tear over the last few weeks, with last weekend’s championship game victory over Washington serving as their eighth-straight win. This is a group playing its best ball of the season at the best possible time, and that makes Oregon a sleeper to make a run in the tournament.

Simply put, the Ducks are about as tough a 12-seed as you can draw, and the Badgers will have their work cut out for them to advance and play the winner of Kansas State/UC-Irvine on Sunday in San Jose. This matchup will almost certainly be one of the most popular upset picks of the Round of 64 by both experts and fans, and by the time Friday rolls around, don’t be shocked if Oregon is the Vegas favorite here.

All that being said, Wisconsin has made it to this point for reason and still has the potential for a deep run in the Dance if a few more cogs start to click again. The Badgers have struggled recently, but they still boast one of the best players in the entire tournament in Ethan Happ, as well as one its top defenses. They may have been dealt an unfortunate hand by the Selection Committee, but they are more than capable of overcoming it and moving past the Ducks.

Projected starters

No. 5 WISCONSIN (23-10)

G – D’Mitrik Trice – SO (11.7 ppg)

G – Brad Davison- SO (10.7 ppg)

F – Khalil Iverson – SR (6.7 ppg)

F – Nathan Reuvers – SO (7.8 ppg)

C – Ethan Happ – SR (17.5 ppg)

No. 12 OREGON (23-12)

G – Payton Pritchard – JR (12.7 ppg)

F – Francis Okoro – FR (3.1 ppg)

F – Louis King – FR (12.7 ppg)

F – Paul White – SR (10.6 ppg)

F – Kenny Wooten – SO (6.2 ppg)

Keys to the game and prediction

In my opinion, this is a horrible opening round matchup for Wisconsin.

There are those who will disagree, pointing to Oregon’s poor performance for much of the regular season. After all, the Ducks looked well on their way to failing to live up to the promise that was bestowed on them as the preseason Pac-12 favorite up until the end of February, sitting at 6-8 in conference play and 15-12 overall after losing to UCLA on the 23rd.

However, as mentioned, Oregon has reeled off eight straight victories since that loss and won a Pac-12 conference championship. In March, it all comes down to who gets hot at the right time, and the Ducks are exactly that at the moment.

To make matters worse, Oregon matches up extremely well with the Badgers defensively. Dana Altman’s squad is long and athletic, with four of the five likely starters standing at 6’9 or taller, including sophomore big man Kenny Wooten, who will likely draw the assignment of defending Ethan Happ. Wooten is an excellent defender, ranking No. 10 in the nation in block percentage and No. 4 in the Pac-12 in defensive rating. Like Oregon as a whole, Wooten has played very well lately, recording four blocks in each of his last two games.

Wooten should be up to the task of handling Happ all by himself, leaving his teammates free to suffocate Wisconsin from the perimeter with their length. Oregon has been outstanding in this regard all season, holding opponents to just 29.4 percent from three, which is good for No. 12 nationally. The Ducks don’t just excel at three-point defense though, ranking No. 26 overall in overall field goal percentage defense. This is all very bad news for a Wisconsin team that has already been in an abysmal shooting slump over the last few weeks.

In addition, Oregon also excels at turning opponents over, ranking No. 21 in the country in steals. Wisconsin does only average a mere 9.5 turnovers per game (good for No. 5 nationally), but there have certainly been outliers sprinkled throughout the season. If another occurs on Friday, the Badgers are toast.

This matchup clearly is not ideal for Wisconsin, but the Badgers remain fully capable of winning this game thanks to an elite defense of their own, and an Oregon offense that, in general, has not been anything special this season. In fact, this will probably be Oregon’s stiffest test of the year on that end of the court.

What the outcome of this contest will come down to in the end is which side finds a way to poke holes in the opposing defense just enough to string together a run or two. Unfortunately, given the way the Badgers have been shooting leading up to Friday, my money is on the Ducks accomplishing this feat. Wisconsin may be the best defensive team they have faced to this point, but Oregon just dispatched of a very good Washington squad in the Pac-12 championship that also happens to boast a tough defense (No. 20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). The Ducks beat the Huskies by 20 points.

Wisconsin fans should be proud of the season the Badgers have put together, but look for Oregon to send them packing early, as the Ducks’ hot streak continues and propels them into the Round of 32.

Badgers fall in a tight one, 64-60.

All stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com 

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