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Wisconsin Basketball: Welcome to the Madness!

By Joey Lovell

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - APRIL 02: Exterior picture of the JW Marriott Hotel which has the entire bracket of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament hanging on its building on April 03, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - APRIL 02: Exterior picture of the JW Marriott Hotel which has the entire bracket of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament hanging on its building on April 03, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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Going into Sunday’s regular-season finale, Wisconsin basketball had been listed in the “last four in” group. Despite their gritty 71-67 win over Minnesota, they were dropped to the “first four out” category by ESPN’s resident bracketologist, Joe Lunardi.

Wisconsin was not helped by Penn State’s comeback win against Maryland or Utah State’s victory over in-state rival Boise State.

Welcome to the Madness folks, where forces beyond your control can dictate your fate.

Wisconsin Basketball’s controllable destiny

Well, to be honest, the Badgers could control their own destiny by just winning the Big Ten tournament. All they need to do is win five games in five days. That’s all.

The Big Ten brackets were officially released after the regular season concluded on Sunday. Wisconsin kicks off the tournament with a matchup against Ohio State. I will break down this game in another article, but for the sake of argument, let’s say the Badgers win.

The road to the Big Ten championship then goes through Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, and then the winner of the bottom half of the bracket.

Wisconsin has beaten Iowa twice this year. A third time will be difficult, but not impossible.

They lost by four points to Michigan State in the second game without Tyler Wahl. Tom Izzo is always a rough matchup in the postseason, but this is also a very winnable game.

Then comes Purdue. Well, I’m assuming Purdue because they play the winner of Rutgers-Michigan (I have no idea who’s going to win that game). Maybe the Boilermakers slip up in their first game of the tourney, but I don’t think so. But if the Wolverines can beat Rutgers, I will be rooting like crazy for them to beat Purdue.

Anything to get one more shot at “The Dancing Queen”.

So, odds dictate that Wisconsin will probably play Purdue in the quarterfinals on Saturday. Last Thursday showed that the Badgers can absolutely hang with the Boilermakers. Yes, I know that they still lost, but who knows what would have happened if Klesmit makes that lay-up with 28 seconds left to put UW up by one.

One comprehensive NCAA bracket site, TeamRankings.com, has the Badgers’ chance of getting into the Big Dance at only 5.8% if they lose to Ohio State on Wednesday. If they beat the Buckeyes but lose to Iowa on Thursday, that percentage rises to 45.6%.

But, if they can string two wins together against two teams they’ve beaten this year and lose to Michigan State, they will have 19 victories and a 78.2% chance of making the tournament.

Just reaching the semis and reaching the magical 20-win mark virtually guarantees their ticket getting punched, with a 95.6% of receiving an at-large bid.

It’s obvious that Wisconsin needs to win a couple of games in the Big Ten tourney. Unless they can win the entire Big Ten tourney, their NCAA tournament fate will ultimately be in hands other than their own.

Isn’t March Madness fun?

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