The Wisconsin Badgers are considered big underdogs against top-10 Illinois. It's not just the spread, which FanDuel has at 10.5 in favor of the Fighting Illini, but also ESPN Analytics gives Wisconsin almost no shot to win. There are a lot of doubters, but both teams are coming off losses, and while one is performing vastly better than the other over the course of the season, Wisconsin has proven this year to rise to the occasion.
ESPN Analytics gives a probability percentage for every game, and it's based on a lot of factors, and often it's right. Ahead of the big road matchup tonight at 7 pm CT, the Badgers have a probability of beating Illinois as 15.1%. That's among some of their lowest prediction percentage this entire season by ESPN Analytics.
The odds and the analytics are against Wisconsin beating Illinois tonight
Related: How Greg Gard and Wisconsin can use Michigan State's formula to beat Illinois
The odds as listed above are also bad, at right around +10.5 for the Badgers in the final odds. That means Vegas isn't giving Wisconsin much of a chance either. The over/under is 152.5, and the moneyline is +460 for Wisconsin and -650 for Illinois.
If you take the spread and the over/under, Vegas is predicting the final score for Wisconsin vs. Illinois to be 82–71 (with the over). That's a tough spread and score for the Badgers.
According to KenPom, the reason is that Illinois has the No. 1 offense in the country. Wisconsin's defense is listed as No. 226 in defensive efficiency. So, by metrics alone, it could be a bloodbath.
Yet, there's one thing Wisconsin fans can hang their hats on. That win over Michigan wasn't flukey; it's not that the Wolverines only played walk-ons or had some weird injury problems. Wisconsin beat them straight up on the road. It's the only Wolverine loss of the season. If Wisconsin is at its best, it can beat anyone, but that seems to be a big ask this season.