One of Wisconsin's best games all last season was the contest against the Ducks. It was the one glimmer of hope in a brutal stretch to end the season. They didn't win it, but it came down to the wire in a 16-13 contest. Now, a year later, with the Badgers playing on the road in Autzen, the forecast for the game is a lot more dire. ESPN is predicting an absolute blowout with no chance for the Badgers.
ESPN Analytics runs prediction models for every game during the season. It gives a probability percentage of how likely one team is to beat the other. For the Wisconsin vs. Oregon game, ESPN Analytics is giving the Badgers a 2.8% chance to win. That's about as sure of a prediction as this model will ever make.
ESPN Analytics is giving Wisconsin a 2.8% chance to beat Oregon
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For context, the No. 3-ranked team in the country is taking on the 1-6 Samford Bulldogs in a few weeks, and ESPN Analytics has the Bulldogs as a 1% chance to win that game. The Bulldogs are an FCS team. Sure, you can argue that 1% and nearly 3% are a big difference. That would be a weird thing to argue.
So, for another context, No. 20 LSU is taking on Western Kentucky in a few weeks, and the Hilltoppers have a 3% chance to beat the Tigers. Which is a higher percentage than what ESPN Analytics is giving the Badgers to beat the Ducks. Western Kentucky is not FCS, but it's a low-level FBS. And so if you split the difference, it's bad for the Badgers. Real bad.
Vegas doesn't have much hope for the Badgers either, as the spread is now at 33.5 in favor of the Ducks. Oregon comes in as the highest scoring offense in both the Big Ten and the Power 4 conferences, while Wisconsin comes in as the lowest scoring offense in both the Big Ten and the Power 4.
It's bleak, and yet Chris McIntosh says, stay the course.