The Wisconsin Badgers are currently only 1.5 games back of the Michigan Wolverines and a half-game back of the Michigan State Spartans in the Big Ten standings. They are comfortably hanging in fourth place until that rivalry game between the Michigan schools tips off on Friday. They not only have an outside shot to win the Big Ten but have a strong case and maybe the easiest path of the five teams in contention.
Mid-week Big Ten standings update... Why not? pic.twitter.com/hLBD6xt9GI
— Badger of Honor (@BadgerOfHonorFS) February 19, 2025
How can Wisconsin win the Big Ten regular season title?
Let's briefly look at the schedule of the five teams within a couple of games of the top: Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Maryland. Most of these teams have five games left, Michigan still has six games left, and Purdue only has four (not good for their hopes).
Michigan | Michigan State | Wisconsin | Purdue | Maryland |
|---|---|---|---|---|
vs. Michigan St. | At Michigan | vs. Oregon | At Indiana | vs. USC |
At Nebraska | At Maryland | vs. Washington | vs. UCLA | vs. Michigan St. |
vs. Rutgers | vs. Wisconsin | At Michigan St. | vs. Rutgers | At Penn State |
vs. Illinois | At Iowa | At Minnesota | At Illinois | At Michigan |
vs. Maryland | vs. Michigan | vs. Penn State | vs. Northwestern | |
At Michigan St. |
If we go with ESPN BPI prediction models and only let the favorites win each game. This is how things would shake out:
Michigan would go 5-1
Michigan State would go 3-2
Wisconsin would go 4-1
Purdue would go 3-1
Maryland would go 4-1
That would basically put Wisconsin in second place and Michigan would win it. Therefore, that's not the scenario to root for.
Basically, Wisconsin is essentially two losses behind Michigan in the Big Ten. If Michigan loses two more games and Wisconsin goes undefeated to end the year, they will be the Big Ten champs. That doesn't give much wiggle room. They also are still a game behind the Spartans which muddies things a little. The most likely loss on the UW schedule is against Michigan State on the road.
This means Wisconsin fans need both Michigan State and Michigan to lose as much as possible. The problem with this, is those two schools each other twice in the final stretch. It's hard to know who to root for or how to let those games shake out. Each will probably be calculated differently.
Michigan has the toughest schedule of all the contenders left. While Wisconsin has the easiest with only one quad-1 game left. If Michigan can trip up against any of these games: Nebraska, Maryland, Illinois, the path gets way more clear for Wisconsin.
All that to say, Wisconsin needs at least two losses from Michigan and one from Michigan State to win out. Or if they drop one game, they need three from the Wolverines and two from Michigan State. All of that is very possible.