The Wisconsin Badgers still have a shot at the triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. UW needed two things to go their way: one was beating Purdue. That's a big checkmark on the to-do list as the Badgers took care of business in Mackey Arena with a final score of 97-93. The other domino is a bigger one than the first: Maryland beating Illinois.
Wisconsin fans will be moonlighting as Terrapin fans tomorrow in the off chance this can happen, but it's a big long shot. The simplest reason it's a pipedream is that Maryland is bad and Illinois is good. The silver lining is that the Terrapins are playing at home and, as a bonus, have pulled out some flukey big wins this season.
To get a triple-bye, Wisconsin needs Maryland to upset Illinois
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Maryland has beaten Iowa and Washington at home. Neither of those is quite on the same caliber as Illinois, but the Terrapins had no business winning those games either.
If Maryland can somehow pull it off, Wisconsin and Illinois will have a tied Big Ten record, and the tie-breaker goes to the Badgers in the head-to-head matchup. This would push Wisconsin to the No. 4 line and Illinois lower than the Badgers.
According to Matt Hackman, Wisconsin has a 7% chance to get the No. 4 seed, with a 93% chance to be the No. 5 seed and receive the double-bye. That much is guaranteed; it's that final push to the triple-bye that would be sweet.
7% may actually be low, as ESPN Analytics has a win for Maryland as a 9.6% probability. That 2.6% matters when you are grasping at straws and hoping one of the worst teams in the conference can beat one of the best teams.
If Wisconsin is stuck in the No. 5 seed line, they will play on March 12th, and the winner of the No. 12 and No. 13 seed game. Those two seeds will be USC and Washington. Sunday's three games matter a lot for the Big Ten Tournament.