As the weather starts to cool off just a bit across the United States, things are starting to heat up on the college football coaching carousel. Three weeks in, and two Power Four head coaches are out of a job. UCLA moved on from DeShaun Foster after an 0-3 start. Virginia Tech echoed the Bruins' sentiment by moving on from their equally disappointing head coach in Brent Pry, who was also 0-3.
As for where Luke Fickell fits into this equation, his seat is starting to heat up a bit. Yes, the road loss to Alabama was largely expected, but the Badgers were outclassed vs. a Crimson Tide team that does have flaws. Fortunately for Fickell, there are wins to be had in conference play for Wisconsin. Another thing he has going for him is other Power Four coaches are under more pressure than him.
Here are the latest odds for the next Power Four head coach to be fired after Foster and Pry's exits.
- Billy Napier (Florida Gators): +225
- Scott Satterfield (Cincinnati Bearcats): +375
- Tony Elliott (Virginia Cavaliers): +450
- Brent Brennan (Arizona Wildcats): +800
- Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State Cowboys): +800
- Kalen DeBoer (Alabama Crimson Tide): +900
- Sam Pittman (Arkansas Razorbacks): +900
- Luke Fickell (Wisconsin Badgers): +1000
- Mark Stoops (Kentucky Wildcats): +1100
- David Braun (Northwestern Wildcats): +1200
- Mike Locksley (Maryland Terrapins): +1600
- Dave Aranda (Baylor Bears): +2500
- Bill Belichick (North Carolina Tar Heels): +3300
Some of these odds have pre-season biases baked into them. Coaches like Brent Brennan and Mike Locksley have yet to lose a game this season. Arizona and Maryland will drops games later this year, but they are 3-0. Even if Scott Satterfield and Tony Elliott have suffered early-season losses already, the Cincinnati Bearcats and Virginia Cavaliers have not performed badly to merit losing their coach.
These feel like the five Power Four head coaches who could soon be out of work like Foster and Pry.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman
It was very close for who deserved the last spot here between Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman and Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops. Neither feel like they are going to be leading their SEC teams after this season. Both have losses to Ole Miss on the schedule. However, a Week 4 loss at Memphis could set in motion a very rough next few weeks for the Razorbacks coach.
They do host Notre Dame in two weeks. While the Irish may not be good, they are still ranked. Outside of Memphis, the only other unranked team on the Hogs' schedule is home vs. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have are 3-0 and have won more games than they did all of last season. If Pittman does go on a lengthy losing streak, he could be out as soon as a potential home loss to Mississippi State.
It was only a six-point road loss to Ole Miss, but wins are looking very hard to come by for the Hogs.
4. Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell
Fickell comes in fourth here because there seems to be slightly more vitriol working against him than Pittman. Getting his clock cleaned by Alabama last week did not help his case heading into Big Ten play. Furthermore, Wisconsin's bad habit of starting games out slowly nearly cost them vs. Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee. Those games were at home to Group of Five teams Wisconsin is better than.
Should the Badgers do what is expected of them and beat Maryland at home on Saturday, he may be taken off the board here entirely, or at least for the time being. However, the Maryland date feels like the most winnable game on Wisconsin's Big Ten schedule. The Badgers need to go 4-5 in Big Ten play for Fickell to possibly keep his job. It will require holding serve at home and stealing one on the road.
To be quite frank, it may come down to the final game of the regular season at arch rival Minnesota.
3. Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun
This almost does not seem fair to David Braun, but he may not be cut out to lead the Northwestern Wildcats for much longer. They may have drawn Tulane and Oregon in the early part of the season, but neither were competitive losses for the Wildcats. Yes, the Green Wave and Ducks have serious playoff aspirations, but the next four games feel like they will decide Braun's fate at Northwestern.
For all intents and purposes, they cannot lose at home to lowly UCLA or UL Monroe out of the Group of Five. Frankly, their may not be many more wins after that. At Penn State is a certain loss, but maybe the Wildcats can own rebuilding Purdue at home. Even if Braun goes 3-1 during that stretch with only a Penn State loss, getting to six wins on the season seems a tad unrealistic. He might be cooked now.
With Northwestern about to re-open a renovated Ryan Field here soon, they might want a new coach.
2. Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier
There is a non-zero chance that Billy Napier has won his final game leading the Florida Gators. Through his first 40 games on the job, he is 20-20. For as much hype as the Gators had coming in, DJ Lagway looks like a high school quarterback and Napier looks like the Sun Belt Billy moniker is going to stick. So how bad could it get for Florida before Napier is finally put out of his misery this season?
Their next three games are all against top-10 teams in the country. The Gators will be lucky to win one over the Miami Hurricanes on the road, home vs. Texas and at Texas A&M. Even if the Gators were to drop all three, the one to watch out for is the Mississippi State game at home. This is athletic director Scott Stricklin's former school. If the Gators are 1-6 heading into The Cocktail Party, he is so toast.
Florida had a 9-3 ceiling this season, but the 6-6 floor feels like it has dropped down to maybe 3-9...
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy
There is cooked, and then there is Mike Gundy cooked... After going 0-9 in Big 12 play last year, fresh off playing Texas in the conference title bout in 2023, Oklahoma State is 1-1 on the year heading into a big in-state rivalry game before Big 12 play commences. The Cowboys have a home win over UT Martin, but got absolutely annihilated by Oregon two weeks ago. He cannot lose on Friday to Tulsa...
If that were to happen, the Pokes would be 1-2 heading into Big 12 play. For as wacky and wild as the new-ish 16-team league is, outside of maybe Kansas State, is there a worse team in the Power Four league? Oklahoma State should be taking advantage of the power void that exists at the top of the league due to Oklahoma and Texas' SEC departures. He has yet to win a league game since they left.
Gundy might be a legend in Stillwater, but is time to take the man who was once 40 out to pasture.