At this stage of the season, Wisconsin's 2-1 record seems about right. Coming in, the Badgers were expected to beat the Miami RedHawks and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at home before falling on the road to the Alabama Crimson Tide to close out non-conference play. Even though everything is still right in front of the Badgers, why does their Week 3 defeat to Alabama feel so incredibly bad?
It may have everything to do with the team losing all mometum heading into Big Ten play. Luke Fickell attempts to say all the right things at the podium, but actions speak louder than words, especially on the field of play. Week by week, more and more people are falling out of favor with Fickell. He has been a head coach for multiple years now, but he seems totally over his skis coaching at Wisconsin.
To say he is on the hot seat now might be a tad unfair, but things can change on a dime in conference play. Wisconsin commences Big Ten play next week when the Badgers welcome Billy Edwards Jr.'s former team in the Maryland Terrapins to Camp Randall. Maryland is far from a perfect team, but the Terrapins know a thing or two about putting up points vs. a lesser opponent. It feels like a must-win.
Regardless of what happens next week vs. Maryland, when does Fickell really begin to feel the heat?
Luke Fickell has to win some games early in Big Ten play to keep his job
Looking at Wisconsin's first few games in Big Ten play, the Badgers need to take at least two of their first three. Maryland at home may be more of a must-win than people even realize. Winning in The Big House at Michigan may be a tall ask, but probably not to the degree of winning at Bryant-Denny. In a way, that game is winnable. However, if the Badgers lose to Maryland, will they even beat Iowa later?
It is all about getting four Big Ten wins to counterbalance dropping the final one in the non-conference to Alabama. Home vs. Maryland, home vs. Iowa and home vs. Washington feel like the most winnable. After that, the Badgers may have to steal one on the road at arch rival Minnesota at season's end to get to a bowl game. As long as a bowl game is possible, Fickell will still have his job.
However, if the Badgers start out 0-3 in Big Ten play with losses to Maryland, Michigan and Iowa, it might become a week-by-week basis for Fickell the rest of the way. There is a chance Wisconsin could be riding a six-game losing streak heading into their second bye after the Oregon date ahead of the Washington game. Again, these home conference games will be of great importance for them.
To tie a bow on this, Fickell should be able to survive any kind of loss to Maryland. That being said, if this year's rendition of Heartland at home vs. Iowa looks like it did last year, then the writing may be on the wall for him. Wisconsin has too proud of a football history to be a borderline bowl team under this current administration. The goal should be to go better than 4-5 in Big Ten play, but that is the ceiling.
For now, Fickell and his staff have to take the Alabama loss in stride and get ready for Maryland next.