The Wisconsin rushing attack is not where anyone wants to see it. Luke Fickell has been clear this week that he wants to get it going and that it needs to be a major part of the game plan. It just has yet to really take off this season, and that's even with a room full of players that, on paper, are top-tier runners. So the question is, is it time to make the switch at bellcow?
The first question actually needs to be about the commitment to the run. Is this a player issue, or is it a game plan issue? Like, has Wisconsin even committed enough to the run to know if Abu Sama III needs to be replaced?
Wisconsin has rushed the football 172 times with the running backs. That's about 19 attempts per game. Sama has had 66 attempts, Darrion Dupree has rushed 58 times, Bryan Jackson has 39 attempts, and Nate Palmer has nine.
To put that in perspective, UCLA (the top Big Ten team) has rushed 279 times with their backs...over 100 times more than Wisconsin. Iowa has rushed 247 times, USC has 255 attempts, and Penn State has 244 attempts. Those are just a few examples, and important ones. Wisconsin isn't even close to any of those numbers; they are closer to Washington at 148 attempts (and their rushing attack is putrid).
Wisconsin has a rushing problem and it may be deeper than just who is the bellcow
This means there clearly is a problem with the game plan. There's just not a high enough commitment to run the football. However, there's a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation here because a team like Washington has moved away from the run because they stink at it. They are having very little success rushing the football, so they throw way more. Is that Wisconsin?
Let's break down those stats. Sama, on his 66 attempts, has 353 yards, which is an average of 5.3 yards per carry. Darrion Dupree is averaging 4.3, and Bryan Jackson is at 4.0. All of those are really respectable numbers, and if Sama just hit his average on each attempt, he could march down the whole field and get first down after first down.
This stat only tells part of the story, though, as Sama has a few explosive runs, including a 72-yard touchdown scamper. So, we also have to consider how it's working in terms of individual series. Does offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes abandon the run too quickly? Or is he running on very predictable downs?
The advanced stats tell us that Wisconsin has a rush rate of 53.5% but a success rate of 36.9%. This means they are rushing more than passing, but their success (ability to stay on schedule) is far less than half the time when rushing.
And if we dig into individual statistics, we see that Sama is only getting about 2.9 yards per carry in LINE yardage, which measures how many yards per carry a player is getting around the scrimmage line. But even more damning is the 2nd level yards, which is only 0.8 yards per carry. Those second-level yards are how many average yards Sama is getting after the defensive line and into the linebackers.
Dupree's is only slightly better at 3.1 and 0.9. Jackson doesn't have enough attempts to be included in the advanced metrics, but it actually points to a larger problem with the offensive line, not the running back.
So here's the verdict. The game plan has to run the ball more, but there's a reason Grimes is giving up, and it's because the offensive line isn't getting the push and/or the backs aren't getting through to the second level consistently.
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