It's no secret that Wisconsin has one of the hardest schedules in college football next season. According to the latest rankings by Kelley Ford, it's the hardest in the Big Ten and the eighth hardest in the NCAA, with only SEC teams ahead of the Badgers. The latest rankings from Kelley Ford have a unique feature: They give a win total for how the 12th-ranked team in the country would do versus the same schedule.
If Wisconsin were to swap with the No. 12 power-rated team in the country, that team would only win 7.2. Not the AP ranking, but the team according to metrics is the No. 12 team, which equates to about 19.3 points per game above the FBS average. The pre-season No. 12 power-rated team is the Tennessee Volunteers. The reality is, this ranking shows that even the best teams would struggle with Wisconsin's schedule.
v1 Schedule Difficulty Rankings!
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) June 20, 2025
The No. 12 power-rated team would be expected to win just 6.5 regular season games against Arkansas’ schedule pic.twitter.com/WHv6BKUAld
How many wins can Wisconsin realistically pull-off with their grueling schedule?
As a reminder, Wisconsin is projected by Vegas oddsmakers to be at 5.5 wins on the season. If Tennessee had the same schedule, according to Kelley Ford, the oddsmakers would have it somewhere around 6.5. Thus, it puts things into perspective for how hard the "Mountain" (as Luke Fickell likes to call it) is.
It's not just that Tennessee would have problems with Wisconsin's schedule if you could theoretically slide around Kelley Ford's metrics, all the tough teams would. Even the top team, the Texas Longhorns, would realistically only be around a nine-win season with the Badgers' schedule.
Does this mean that we should somehow go into the season expecting the worst? No, it means that if the Badgers can pull off six wins and get back into a bowl game, it's all that much more impressive. That should be the goal for a six-win season, with this schedule effectively about a seven-to-eight-win season in another year with a more normal schedule.