Kelly Ford Ratings put out a chart on X revealing the number of wins each team would need to be considered for the College Football Playoff. In their model the Badgers would need a minimum of nine wins to reach the playoff, but how likely is that?
How many regular season wins does your team need to be in conversation for a CFP at-large bid?
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) July 3, 2024
*Order within the tier matters. Georgia’s 9 wins would be more impressive than Vanderbilt’s, which would be more impressive than Arkansas’, etc. pic.twitter.com/wuXepya3oG
Could the Badgers win nine games? Yes, absolutely. But it's more complicated than just that. Wisconsin has one of the toughest schedules in the country, but they need win the right nine games to be considered for the postseason.
Say the Badgers do win nine games but their three losses are against Alabama, Oregon, and Penn State. That would leave wins over Western Michigan, South Dakota, Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota and USC. That doesn't exactly scream playoff-caliber team. USC and Iowa would certainly be quality wins but I'm not sure that does enough.
For the Badgers to make the playoffs with nine total wins, I think they would need to win against two of these top four teams: Alabama, Oregon, Penn State and USC, with the third loss coming against Iowa or Nebraska. To me that's the strongest case for a nine win Badgers team to make the playoffs as an at-large bid. Losses against three of those top four would seem like a strectch to make it in.
Considering the Badgers current over/under win projection is 6.5, it would be a longshot to reach nine wins in the first place. But then adding in the extra element that it needs to be the right nine wins makes things even trickier. But never count out the Badgers.