The football season is right around the corner as the fall camps open up this week for Big Ten schools. Many of the conference coaches are in "make-or-break" seasons; others are brand new hires, and there are some who are extremely safe from being fired (at least for this season). Let's rank each head coach based on how hot their seat is.
The seat is on fire
The seat is on fire, which means this season better be better than last year, or the coach is gone. There's no keeping them if they either get the same record, one more win, or, God forbid, fewer wins. The Big Ten fired a lot of coaches last year, so this list is shorter than most seasons, with only two coaches.
1. Mike Locksley - Maryland
Locksley ranks above Fickell for now because Locksley has almost zero momentum heading into the season, while Fickell is riding a wave of fans starting to hope in him again.
2. Luke Fickell - Wisconsin
Fickell has to win at least six games this year to be safe. However, the schedule sets up for eight if all the chips fall right.
The seat is extremely warm
3. Lincoln Riley - USC
Riley is coaching a top-25 team this season, but that doesn't mean his job is safe. USC fans do not want to watch a six- or seven-win team. They want to compete for national championships year after year, and Riley has yet to even sniff that. His pressure will be enormous next season.
4. Matt Rhule - Nebraska
Rhule is in a similar boat; he's proven he can be a mediocre coach, but no Nebraska fan wants that. While he won't be fired if he puts up seven wins again, he will move up a tier.
The seat is too new
This group of coaches is all the ones who were hired in the last year. Yet, they are still ranked based on how quickly their fan bases will turn on them if they don't produce winning seasons right away.
5. Matt Campbell - Penn State
Campbell has the most pressure on this list. While he can get away with a six-win season, he better not do it in back-to-back years.
6. Kyle Whittingham - Michigan
Michigan fans also demand a high standard and want to see College Football Playoffs and National Championships, or at least beat Ohio State.
7. Bob Chesney - UCLA
There's a big gap between Whittingham and Campbell and between Chesney and Fitzgerald. Both will have a longer leash and will be given a few seasons to turn things around.
8. Pat Fitzgerald - Michigan State
The seat is room temperature
This category is where most of the coaches fall. This group of coaches can get away with the status quo for another season, but eventually they've got to figure things out. Any of these could be fired, though, if the season turns into a disaster.
9. Greg Schiano - Rutgers
Schiano is the best football coach that Rutgers has ever had but it may be time for Rutgers to expect more than being a bottom of the pack, Big Ten football team.
10. Kirk Ferentz - Iowa
No team is the same year after year like Iowa, always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Will Iowa fans someday figure out that Ferentz doesn't have the juice to lead them to a National Championship, or are they fine with perpetually being a good Big Ten team but not a great Big Ten team?
11. Jedd Fisch - Washington
Fisch needs to find a way to get into the College Football Playoff if he wants to move up a tier in this list. For now, being a good Big Ten team will keep the fanbase from losing their mind, but only for a year or two more.
12. PJ Fleck - Minnesota
Minnesota fans love this guy, but he's not a good enough coach to drop into the "freezing seat" section. A middle-tier coach who is safe because the fanbase doesn't expect much but winning the Paul Bunyan Axe.
13. Bret Bielema - Illinois
Bielema may be the best football coach Illinois has had in a long, long time. He's safe, but he's also in the category of needing to keep the status quo to stay in this tier.
14. Barry Odom - Purdue
Purdue fans are just looking ahead to basketball season already.
15. David Braun - Northwestern
Northwestern is fine with Braun and Braun is fine with Northwestern, it's a match made in heaven.
The seat is freezing
16. Dan Lanning - Oregon
Lanning may be up in the "room temperature" section. He's winning off-season after off-season but falling in the College Football Playoff at the same rate. However, it's hard to imagine Oregon getting or even pushing to get another coach.
17. Ryan Day - Ohio State
Ohio State fans will turn on Ryan Day so fast if he loses a couple of games; he's not safe, but he's also going to lead them to another CFP, so he should be.
18. Curt Cignetti - Indiana
The safest of all the coaches. Indiana fans are already building a statue.
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