The 2026 season could very well be a make-or-break year for Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell. His tenure in Madison thus far has been nothing short of disastrous, especially considering the expectations bestowed upon him prior to his arrival, and another underwhelming year could draw an end to his time with the Badgers.
That said, a lot of things have begun to turn in the favor of Fickell. A strong recruiting surge in both the portal and grassroots level has gifted him his best roster since joining the program. And along with that, Wisconsin has arguably its easiest slate of games in the past half-decade, giving Fickell the perfect chance to prove himself – so let’s break it down.
The likely wins
It goes without saying that no win is guaranteed in college football, especially once the Badgers enter Big 10 play. With that said, there are a handful of games on the schedule that should provide Wisconsin with easy opportunities to stack some wins.
The only two "guaranteed wins” for the Badgers this year will come against Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan, who should not hold a candle to what Wisconsin brings to the table. The Badgers should also be able to take care of teams like Purdue, Rutgers and Michigan State, who are arguably just as, if not more, dysfunctional than Wisconsin has been in recent years.
That gives the Badgers’ floor at five wins for the 2026 season, which seems well within reason given the roster they have built.
The likely losses
Next up, it’s time to swallow some truth pills, as I’m sure even Fickell himself could admit that Wisconsin will not be going undefeated this season. That said, there is at least a path to victory in almost every game – it’s just that the path to victory against these opponents doesn’t seem very likely.
Notre Dame, USC and Iowa can almost be penciled in as losses sadly, as even with the improvements the Badgers have made, they are still likely a good bit behind where those programs were at. That said, Notre Dame has to come to Lambeau for both teams’ season opener, USC has to travel across the country in late October to play at the likely frigid Camp Randall. Iowa is a pseudo rivalry game, leaving plenty of room for an upset.
The #Badgers are about to face a Notre Dame defense that returns eight starters from a group that was 10th in scoring defense. Wisconsin is still dealing with uncertainty on the offensive line.
— Karl Winter (@KarlWinterTV) September 2, 2026
Luke Fickell wants the offense to have "balance."
From last night on @WKOW: pic.twitter.com/5C5yg8JPef
In short, there is always a path to victory or defeat, it’s just a matter of scaling the likelihood of that happening. For these specific teams, the odds are slim, leaving a base expectation of a 5-3 record for Wisconsin. Now let’s get into the fun.
The toss-ups
The remaining four games on the Badgers’ schedule are largely considered toss-up games as of now, and Wisconsin’s performance in said games will likely be the deciding factor in if Fickell will be around for another season. These four games being a road game against Penn State to open conference play, a road game against UCLA, a road game against Maryland and a home game against the team that shall not be named.
Key theme here as I’m sure many could pick up on – road games. Each of the three teams in this group that Wisconsin plays on the road has at or around the same expectations as the Badgers heading into next season. Wisconsin has a path to victory in each of those games, it’s just a matter of how well those teams show up on their home turf.
The lone home game the Badgers have against the G*lden G*phers is one that Wisconsin dominated for years, until recent years where the wins have begun to slip away.
It’s plausible that the Badgers win every game, it’s also possible that they win none of these games, fire hits the fan and Wisconsin is forced to have a program-wide reset. That said, we can likely set a reasonable expectation at the Badgers going 2-2 in this stretch.
Final prediction: 7 wins, 5 losses
All in all, that leaves Wisconsin at 7-5 on the year, placing it firmly back into a bowl game for the first time in two years. 7-5 may still seem disappointing to many and rightfully so, but at worst, it’s a step in the right direction. All in all, it should be a fun year as a bit of excitement has found its way back into Badger football.
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