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The AP Poll finally gives Wisconsin some respect but Vegas says 'not so fast'

Wisconsin finally earned some grace in the AP Poll, but the odds of a playoff birth are still very low
ByOwen Jury
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Oct 24, 2026; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Bryan Jackson II (21) celebrates after a run against the USC Trojans during the second half at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Wahl-Imagn Images
Oct 24, 2026; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Bryan Jackson II (21) celebrates after a run against the USC Trojans during the second half at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Wahl-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Following the Wisconsin Badgers’ massive 24-7 upset win over the USC Trojans, national media and football fans alike were left with no choice but to give Wisconsin the credit it deserves. Although reluctant due to a couple of early-year hiccups, the Badgers are once again ranked in the AP Poll, slotting in at No. 25 overall.

Wisconsin is still behind teams like Oklahoma State, Missouri, Houston and Florida, who in actuality have similar, if not worse, resumes than the Badgers. But for most, just getting national recognition is enough.

On top of that, Wisconsin has a great chance to keep climbing as the year goes on, with each of the remaining five games being incredibly winnable. Outside of what will be a tough road test against Iowa, the Badgers are set up with a majority of bottom-feeders in the Big Ten, giving them a somewhat realistic chance to sneak into the College Football Playoff.

The odds ahead

That said, the execs up in Vegas still seem to be a bit skeptical, with Wisconsin still slotting in at just +70,000 odds. The odds on Kalshi currently have them at 15%, which is low but far greater than what most fans would have expected entering the year.

Looking at the smaller picture, the Badgers currently sit at +7,200, locking them in with the fourth-best odds in the conference. They only trail Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA and Northwestern, each of whom have proven themselves to be beatable at one point or another.

All of these conversations are still wishful thinking at this point in time, as in the Luke Fickell era, Wisconsin has been anything but a title contender. That said, the schedule permits a solid chance at running the table, which, if the Badgers were able to do so and put up a fight in the Big Ten championship, should leave little doubt that they find their way into the CFP.

As for the short-term goals, nothing really changes in Madison. The Badgers have to continue to take things one game at a time, focusing on beating the teams that remain in front of them. Going out and laying another egg like they did against UCLA and Notre Dame in the second half would be detrimental to the long-term goals of the team.

Along with that, some consistency in the passing game should be sought after, as odds are, Wisconsin won’t be able to continue to win games with Colton Joseph throwing for under 100 yards. The defense looks better than ever, the run game has returned to prominence, and now all that holds the Badgers between defeat and a potential playoff victory is a little more flair in the air.

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