The dream and nightmare scenarios for Wisconsin basketball in the 2025-26 season

With the Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team officially starting up summer workouts this past Monday, what better time than now to evaluate the roster and place some expectations on what the year could look like? The Badgers obviously underwent a fair bit of roster turnover this offseason, losing multiple guys to both the portal and graduation, forcing Greg Gard and the rest of his staff to re-tool and reload.

Lucky for Wisconsin fans, they did just that, and now entering the 2025-26 campaign, the Badgers have built themselves some legitimate hype. It may not be the same level of excitement that surrounded the team last season after the moves they made, but nonetheless, Wisconsin has proven it can do more with less. But, at least as of now, expectations remain unclear as to what this team could be, so why not set a realistic floor and ceiling for Badger basketball next year?

Floor

It's always difficult to set a hard, set-in-stone floor for a team that carries so much optimism, but sometimes it's necessary in order to temper expectations. In Wisconsin's case, there likely isn't a scenario where the team next year flops entirely. Between Nolan Winter, Austin Rapp, Eain Elmer and Owen Foxwell, the Badgers have a solid core of players that will, at worst, be able to compete on the highest stage.

However, the one thing clearly lacking from the team right now is a go-to guy, and if one doesn't emerge, Wisconsin could be in trouble. There is no doubt that Gard can form a solid enough scheme to, at worst, field a competent roster. But one of the backbones of Badger basketball recently has been having one or two guys they can consistently give the ball to and trust to generate offense. Wisconsin has some candidates to do that this year, no doubt, but it will require one or two players on the roster unlocking a new layer to their game that they haven't previously shown.

If it doesn't happen and Wisconsin is forced to run out a by-committee system all year, the Badgers could be in real trouble. Sure, the shooting prowess the team carries will be enough to win spot games, but without a truly transcendent player, Wisconsin will be incapable of beating the best of the best, which could result in a play-in spot followed by an early exit in the now-expanded NCAA Tournament field.

Ceiling

The ceiling for Wisconsin next year is basically just the inverse of what its floor is. As previously mentioned, the Badgers have a well-rounded core of players that project as competent talent capable of playing off one another. On top of that, Wisconsin has a flurry of young talent residing on the bench that could very well shatter expectations and take a leap into true stardom.

Badger fans have seen a story similar to that unfold in the past, as players like Johnny Davis, John Blackwell and Ethan Happ each had a steady climb to the stardom they eventually achieved. Wisconsin obviously doesn't have that kind of talent waiting at the back of its roster this time around, but there are plenty of intriguing players who could, and likely will, make an impact next year.

Guys like Will Garlock, Zach Kinziger and Hayden Jones have all received praise from the Badger coaching staff and could end up being impactful players next season. If Wisconsin can maximize one or two of them on top of getting a star leap from one of its starters, then the sky is the limit for what the Badgers could be.

Wisconsin likely doesn't have enough firepower to make a Final Four or national championship kind of run, but if all goes right, the Badgers could very well be dancing into the second weekend next season, a feat that has eluded them for far too many years.

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