ESPN may be giving Wisconsin only an 11.1-percent chance to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday, but the national media may be getting ahead of its skis here just a bit with the No. 19 team in the nation. This is not an Alabama team from yesteryear, far from it in fact. While Kalen DeBoer was an excellent head coach coming in, he has quickly proven to not be anything close to Nick Saban.
Furthermore, the Crimson Tide are 1-1 on the season with a bad road loss at Florida State. While Wisconsin's two wins are over Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee, a win is a win is a win. The Badgers only had five of them a year ago. One of their seven losses was a brutal one in Madison to this same Crimson Tide squad. However, fewer and fewer teams are still fearful of what the Crimson Tide do.
To be quite frank, even though much has been made about Wisconsin's probable Week 3 starter in backup Danny O'Neil, why is everyone and their brother giving Ty Simpson a pass? In a best-case scenario, he could be Mac Jones in a non-COVID season. Unfortunately for him and the Crimson Tide, he has got a lot of Brodie Croyle in him. Maybe Wisconsin can take advantage of this in Week 3?
The best thing the Badgers have going for them right now besides belief might be their pass-rush.
Wisconsin may have one big advantage when taking on Alabama Week 3
For all intents and purposes, Simpson is a glorified statue back there for the Crimson Tide. While he has been completing two-thirds of his passes this season for 480 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, the guy is not much of a runner in the backfield. He has 11 carries for 20 yards and a touchdown so far. Alabama should be able to keep him upright, but what if they cannot prop him up?
The only real way that Wisconsin upsets Alabama is if Simpson and the rest of the Crimson Tide offense give the Badgers the ball back at will, in conjuction with O'Neil playing above his skis. This is not to say that O'Neil needs to be as good as what Tommy Castellanos was during Week 1 for Florida State, but that kind of herculean effort might be required. It might be too tall of an ask, to be honest...
Ultimately, Simpson is still largely unproven as a passer. He may have beaten out Austin Mack and Keelon Russell throughout spring practice and into fall camp, but it still kind of seems like he won the starting quarterback job by default because he was the safe and conservative choice for DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to make. But what if their chosen one starts the season out at 1-2?
Wisconsin may not have the firepower to keep pace with Alabama, but if it gets ugly, they have a shot.