Maryland fired Mike Locksley and has had two back-to-back games that turned heads. The first was against Illinois, in which they had the Fighting Illini on the ropes through the whole game. Ultimately, the Terrapins lost 20-17, but it could have easily been a win. Then Maryland traveled to Purdue and pulled off the upset over the Boilermakers, 34-29.
Vegas may be more excited about the Terrapins than they should be because the opening line for the Wisconsin game is only a 7.5-point spread in favor of the Badgers, according to FanDuel.That doesn't feel right, and the over/under also feels wrong. Let's dig into both.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
The Wisconsin vs. Maryland spread feels low
Maryland has been terrible this season, and there's no other way to slice it or dice it. The Terrapins were so bad that the University felt compelled to fire Locksley. Maryland lost six games straight before finally beating Purdue.
They lost to Rutgers 37-30 just three games ago, and that was the game that sent Locksley packing. Yet, Wisconsin just beat Rutgers 31-10. To break this down, Wisconsin beat the team that beat Maryland by three scores. Now, the transitive principle doesn't always work well in college football, but still.
Wisconsin is on the road, and Vegas loves giving the home team a bit more on their line. However, that's usually around three points. So even with that, a 10.5 spread still feels low. That's probably because Maryland has been better in its last two games.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
The Wisconsin vs. Maryland over/under feels low
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FanDuel has set the over/under at the beginning of the week at 43.5. This also feels too low, and not just because of Wisconsin. Maryland actually has a higher-scoring offense than Wisconsin but also has a worse defense. It's only slightly better than Rutgers.
Maryland allows 31.3 points per game. Wisconsin allows 16.3. Even if they each just hit their averages, the over/under should be at 47.5. However, let's add in the offenses. Maryland's offense is averaging 27.7 points per game, and Wisconsin's is at 24.4.
This is all just data, and the game will clearly be different, and the competition that these two teams have played has certainly determined this. Like Maryland scored 34 against Purdue and 30 against Rutgers. Regardless, Maryland will find a couple of explosive plays, and you have to assume they will get some points on the board.
This is all just early lines, and it will change as the game gets closer; injuries and other things will change how this line moves. Also, as people bet on it, things will change. And ultimately, Wisconsin doesn't do great at being near the Vegas line anyways (in both directions). So, stay tuned as the game gets closer, but for now, both the spread and the over/under feel off.
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