The first-ever Big Ten Volleyball Tournament starts on Friday, and every single Big Ten team has one regular-season match to go. Those final matches of the season matter more than maybe most fans realize when it comes to how the final seeding of the tournament breaks down.
There are a few things set in stone. First, Nebraska is the No. 1 seed, and even if, in some crazy world, Minnesota beats them in that final match, it won't matter for the Big Ten Tournament (for Nebraska). The other certainty is that Northwestern and Iowa will be missing this tournament; at 1-15 and 2-14, respectively, they can't make it in.
There are really only two teams at risk of being eliminated (besides Iowa and Northwestern), and those are Maryland and Ohio State. The good news for Rutgers, a team also sitting at 4-12 like Ohio State, is that they hold the tiebreaker over Ohio State. So even with a loss to Penn State by Rutgers and an Ohio State win, they advance. Or if Maryland wins, they also hold the tiebreaker over Maryland.
1. Maryland vs. Ohio State
This is as much a play-in match as you can get in this tournament. Both teams essentially have to win to get into the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State loses; they end in a tie with Rutgers, Rutgers holds the tiebreaker, and Ohio State goes home. Maryland loses, and they have the third-worst record, and they don't get to be in the tournament. This match matters a ton.
2. Oregon vs. Washington
Oregon is trying to be that No. 2 or No. 3 seed to avoid Nebraska's side of the bracket, but with Wisconsin playing Northwestern and Penn State playing Rutgers, that fate may already be sealed as the Ducks don't have the tiebreaker over either.
This match matters a ton for Washington. A loss could drop them out of the first-round byes and force them to play four matches before the Championship. A win could propel the Huskies all the way up to No. 7, which would also move them off Nebraska's side of the bracket.
It's fun that a rivalry match matters this much. Which will be the common theme the rest of the way.
3. USC vs. UCLA
Another rivalry match with a ton of implications. The Trojans are fresh off a big win over the Huskies, and their interim head coach has them firing on all cylinders. That win kept the Trojans from being eliminated, and now USC is safely inside the field, but the bad news for the Trojans is that they can't improve their seeding anymore.
It's UCLA that has more to play for now. There are six teams right around seven to nine wins. UCLA has eight. So a loss puts them into tiebreaker situations, potentially with Indiana (8 wins) and one of the Michigan schools, and a win puts them up with Washington and Illinois. So, their seed could change either way dramatically.
4. Purdue vs. Indiana
With Minnesota playing Nebraska to close out the season, Purdue feels pretty safe to stay in the No. 5 spot, and a loss does nothing to them. It's Indiana that has a lot to play for, as they are right in the mix. The Hoosiers have eight wins and are in a tiebreaker situation with UCLA, which they hold. If Indiana can beat Purdue, they will jump a whole line from the first-round matches to the second-round matches. A loss creates more tiebreaker scenarios.
5. Michigan vs. Michigan State
These two teams head into the final match of the season, each with a 7-9 record. There's a world where the winner gets to move into the second round and have a first-round bye, and the loser is fighting for their lives as the No. 12 seed. Other pieces would have to fall into place, like Indiana and UCLA losing, but this match could determine a lot in this bracket.
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