The Big Ten schedule is upon us as Wisconsin takes on Penn State in Happy Valley this Saturday. It's a game that has much anticipation between the two fanbases. Nittany Lions fans have yet to see this new Matt Campbell-coached team take on a Power 4 opponent, and Wisconsin fans are truly curious about whether this Badgers team can make the jump they need to make this year.
This game will be a good indicator for both programs of what the rest of the season and the future can look like. As we dig into the game, let's use three different prediction models to determine the outcome.
ESPN Analytics
ESPN Analytics' Matchup Predictor may give the Badgers the least likely chance of beating the Nittany Lions. Wisconsin has a 12.4% chance to win according to their prediction model. While ESPN won't give actual score predictions, this low a number almost always signals a double-digit loss. Thus, ESPN has given Wisconsin almost no hope, which seems a bit insane.
Yes, predicting Wisconsin as the underdogs makes a ton of sense, but to think they don't really have a shot is wild. Penn State is still too unproven this season to be throwing percentages like that out there.
Related: 3 things Wisconsin still desperately needs to clean up before Penn State
Vegas Odds
Vegas has been hovering around a 9.5 to 10.5 spread in favor of Penn State. Odds are always subject to change, but as of this writing, Wisconsin is a 9.5 underdog. The over/under is set at 43.5. The way to use Vegas as a prediction model is to take the spread and the over/under and do a little math to find the final score.
Vegas is predicting somewhere around a 27-17 win for Penn State. That's if you take both the over and the spread for Penn State. But that's a realistic football score, so that's about the level of prediction.
AI Predictions
Related: Wisconsin vs Penn State Week 4: How to watch, weather, injuries, odds, and more
It's also fun to ask AI to predict the game and really give it a prompt that forces it to weigh what it is seeing on the internet. The prompt entered into ChatGPT was "Use your instincts to predict the final score of Penn State vs. Wisconsin."
ChatGPT predicts a final score of Penn State 24 - Wisconsin 20. But then, of course, the model threw in this little nugget about what if there happened to be an upset: "Wisconsin winning 23–21 is the upset scenario I'd have in mind." That last line came unprompted.
Google Gemini, with a slightly more straightforward prompt of "Give me a final score prediction for Wisconsin vs. Penn State football this weekend," determined that the final score would be 24-13 for Penn State. This seems to be close to the consensus of the other models.
However, just for fun, let's prompt Gemini for an upset and see what it spits out. "If Wisconsin pulls off the upset, the final score would likely be Wisconsin 27, Penn State 24." According to Gemini, this would happen with a big running attack, winning the turnover battle, and causing some chaos. Sounds good to us.
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