The 2025 Wisconsin football season is a problem. It's a problem for Wisconsin fans as they look at the schedule and realize it very likely could be another year without a bowl game. However, it's also a problem for Luke Fickell and his staff, who have been calling the schedule "The Mountain" that needs to be climbed. It's not going to be easy. It's literally the hardest Big Ten schedule, and it's loaded with problems and very few solutions.
Oddsmakers have Wisconsin football winning 5.5 games in 2025
Most oddsmakers have Wisconsin's win total at 5.5 wins, and it's been that way for months. FanDuel has those odds, and the vast majority seem to be taking the under. There's not a lot of optimism for a six-win season. Yet, six wins get a team into a bowl game, and it's one more win than last season (and thus it's an important step). At 5.5, Vegas sees a scenario in which it happens.
How though? What's the most likely scenario for six wins and a bowl game?
To get to six, Wisconsin has to win the first two against Ohio (Miami) and Middle Tennessee. Once those are in the basket, it gets a whole lot trickier. The other non-conference game is against Alabama. While they certainly aren't the same without Nick Saban, it's not an easy win.
The next most likely win is Maryland, which has a terrible quarterback situation and is not any better than it was last season. You could argue that the Terrapins are worse. That puts the Badgers at three wins.
Then, you need to win three from this group: Michigan, Iowa, Washington, and Minnesota. That would be where the six wins come from. If Wisconsin loses two of those games, they would somehow have to upset Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, or Illinois. While not impossible, all of those teams are going to be fighting for their conference championships.
Thus, the six wins is going to be (if it is to happen):
Ohio (Miami)
Middle Tennessee
Maryland
Iowa
Washington
Minnesota
At least that's the most likely scenario. Daunting? Is this the mountain? It sure is.