Luke Fickell entered the season on the hot seat, yet with a long leash, which will infuriate fans who want to see him gone. Of the coaches on the hot seat, he may truly be the only one who has zero risk of being fired until well into the conference schedule. So, if you are one of the fans looking for Fickell to be canned, unless he loses one of the next two weeks, it won't happen for a while.
Let's break it down as logically as possible. First, Luke Fickell has drastically improved the Wisconsin roster this offseason and seemingly has elevated recruiting to new heights. That's important for the longer leash. For that theory, or that "improved roster," to hold up, it has to actually be tested to see if Fickell is the problem or if the roster was the problem. Yet, the litmus test is weeks away. Nothing about Weeks 1-3 will tell us anything.
Notre Dame was not the litmus test, even if fans want it to be. Wisconsin should be a team in the National Championship conversation, but that doesn't happen overnight. Wisconsin wasn't going to go from a four-win team to a National Champion in one season, even with the transfer portal. Even at Curt Cignetti's rapid pace, it takes 2-3 years. So, this is year one, and Notre Dame showed us some, but it was never going to be the standard for Fickell's job.
What is the litmus test for if Wisconsin is actually a better team or if Fickell is the problem?
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Then Wisconsin gets to play an FCS opponent in Western Illinois and a low-tier FBS opponent, Eastern Michigan. Neither of those will be litmus tests either. Sure, if Fickell loses one of those games, the "Fire Fickell" chants can start, and things can sour quickly. Wisconsin had more of a shot at beating Notre Dame than those two teams have at beating Wisconsin.
So, neither of those are litmus tests either. That's three weeks without a true evaluation of whether the roster is better or not. To see if Fickell has actually been the problem or the lack of resources and focus on NIL has been the issue (regardless that he is partially to blame for that).
The first week to really tell will be Week 4 against Penn State. Yet, even that is only a "sort of" test. Penn State is still considered one of the better Big Ten programs, and it's on the road for Wisconsin. Yet, if Wisconsin knocks off the Nittany Lions, the seat cools. If the game is close but Wisconsin loses, it stays the same; if it's a blowout in favor of Penn State, the seat gets even hotter.
Then it's Michigan State, a team that already feels like a win on the schedule. So, that may not be a great litmus test either. UCLA on the road comes in with a built-in excuse. USC is a CFP team, and Iowa is always going to be Iowa. The season then goes Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota.
Wisconsin may truly not learn if this team is better or not until we take in the whole season. Does that mean that Luke Fickell shouldn't be fired until the end of the season? Maybe, but the schedule is set up perfectly for a really long leash for Fickell's bid to remain the head coach of the Badgers.
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