Wisconsin's hot start has changed things dramatically for oddsmakers as they figure out this Badgers team. Luke Fickell's team is sitting at 4-1 and 2-0 in the Big Ten, which is only one of four undefeated (in the conference) teams. They are joined by Indiana, Ohio State, and the UCLA Bruins at the top of the Big Ten standings.
This has not only changed their Big Ten title chances according to FanDuel, but has also changed their College Football Playoff chances. Not just slightly, but dramatically. It helped that Wisconsin was sitting on a bye week while teams like Oregon and Nebraska lost. Wisconsin is now rising fast in the oddsmakers' minds.
Wisconsin College Football Playoff Odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Wisconsin now has +650 to make the College Football Playoff. If you aren't impressed, let me tell you that before the season started, the Badgers had a +100,000 chance of making the CFP according to FanDuel. I'm no mathematician, but let me get the calculator out...That's a jump of 99,350 in five weeks.
The Badgers didn't even play this week, and it went up a good jump. Now, to dump cold water on the narrative, Wisconsin is still 27th on the list of odds. With teams like Nebraska and Oregon ahead of them. But the fact that Wisconsin is way up the list now is incredible.
They've also taken a dramatic step up in the oddsmakers' minds to win the Big Ten Championship Game.
Wisconsin's odds to win the Big Ten Championship Game
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
The Badgers have the fifth-best odds in the Big Ten to win the conference championship game. That seems pretty good, but the odds are actually lower for winning this game than for making the College Football Playoff. Right now, the odds from FanDuel for the Big Ten Championship winner are as follows (top 8 odds only):
Ohio State -140
Indiana +220
UCLA +1300
Oregon +2000
Wisconsin +2700
Iowa +3500
USC +3500
Nebraska +5000
It's interesting to see the disparity between the Big Ten Championship winner and the College Football Playoff. The main difference is that there can only be one winner of the Big Ten Championship, while the CFP will take a handful of Big Ten teams this season. But Nebraska has higher odds to make the CFP than Wisconsin but lower odds to win the Big Ten Championship.
The easiest explanation may be that Wisconsin hasn't lost a Big Ten game yet and Nebraska has. That doesn't really explain Oregon, which also already has a Big Ten loss (to UCLA). But there's still a lot of hype around that program even though they are sitting on two losses this season.
So, what do we make of this as Wisconsin fans? The world is waking up to what Luke Fickell is doing; the big thing is that he has to continue to do it. Beating UCLA this week will go a long way, a long, long way, to helping the narrative that Wisconsin is for real.
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