Wisconsin Basketball: Badgers vs. Penn State – Post-Game Analysis

The Wisconsin basketball team took down Penn State Thursday night

The Badgers posted a nice win against Penn State last night, with a victory that felt much more dominating than the final result.

Related Story: Badgers Hang on for Win at Penn State

In fact, if you look at Ken Pomeroy’s win probability graph for the game (behind paywall), the Badgers were a 90% favorite for all but the first minute of the second half.

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Speaking of Pomeroy, he wins this edition of the crystal ball challenge, with his prediction of a 64-63 Badger win.

My component numbers (65-64 PSU win) were closer than my overall numbers (67-64 PSU win).

But, what you really want to know is how the Badgers pulled off this win. As you can see from my chart of the stats for the game, it was all about the inside game.

The Badgers decisively won the battle inside the arc in every way. They shot more, made more, and made a higher percentage.

The strong inside game also lead to more free throws and more made free throws, as well, even though the Badgers didn’t shoot all that well from the line. Those advantages more than made up the difference in 3-point shooting. It’s a good thing that Penn State didn’t try more 3-pointers early in the game.

The Badgers had low turnovers and an edge in Offensive Rebounds. At some point, I’m going to look at the turnover trend on this team, as my sense is that it has gotten better on the turnover front.

As you can see in the chart, below, Ethan Happ was the best player on the court, so he deserves all the accolades that he’s getting in the articles.

The interesting thing to see is that Alex Illikainen, Nigel Hayes, and Vitto Brown, were the next best players, which means that inside players were the 4 most valuable Badgers.  You can see how individual play translates to the team level.

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I recommended that Zak Showalter should guard Shep Garner, and that’s what happened. Showalter had the second best defensive impact in the game for the Badgers, so Greg Gard and I made the right move. On the other hand, I though Bronson Koenig was in for a big game, but he didn’t put up the numbers that I was predicting.

I hate to end on a down note, but I don’t see why Aaron Moesch, Jordan Hill, and Jordan Smith are getting playing time. They each, along with Khalil Iverson, had zero to negative value in the game. I get that Hill needs to spell Koenig and Showalter, some, but this is too much. Moesch may have a PhD in the swing offense, as Gard has said, but he doesn’t have the skills to put it to use and his defense is really bad.  And, Smith? Really, Greg, really?

Next: Ethan Happ Earns Big Ten Award

Stay tuned to Badger of Honor for more on the Wisconsin basketball team.