Wisconsin Football: Expect Defensive Decline in Justin Wilcox’s 1st Season

The Wisconsin football team officially has a new defensive coordinator

The Wisconsin Badgers officially announced the hiring of Justin Wilcox as the Wisconsin football team’s new defensive coordinator on Thursday. Wilcox will be called on to replace Dave Aranda, who guided the Badgers’ defense for three seasons before he left for the same position at LSU on New Year’s Day.

Related Story: Justin Wilcox Hired as Badgers Defensive Coordinator

Wilcox has some big shoes to fill in his first season in Madison. In his three years with Wisconsin, Aranda raised the bar of the Badgers’ defense. Introducing his 3-4 scheme to Wisconsin football in 2013, Aranda was in charge of a defense that allowed just 15.7 points per game, second to only Alabama in the three-year span. Wisconsin also ranked No. 1 in total defense, No. 3 in pass defense and No. 4 in rush defense during Aranda’s tenure.

Aranda’s group reached its peak in his final year with the program with the way Wisconsin’s defense played in 2015. The Badgers finished with the top scoring defense, third-best scoring defense, No. 6 pass defense and No. 4 rush defense.

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Replacing one of the best defensive minds in college football will not be an easy task, and repeating Wisconsin’s elite 2015 season on the defensive side of the ball would be an unfair expectation in Wilcox’s first year in Madison for a variety of reasons.

Wilcox appears to be a solid fit to run Wisconsin’s defense. He has typically run a 3-4 base with multiple unique variations just like Aranda. The Badgers have the personnel for a 3-4 scheme, so the transition should be easier for players who have been familiar with the formation.

Wisconsin will return seven starters to its defense in 2016, including six of the front seven. The Badgers will be set with a great deal of depth on the defensive line, and their linebackers should continue to be the stars of the defense with Vince Biegel, T.J. Edwards, Chris Orr and Jack Cichy.

The obvious concern for Wisconsin’s defense in 2016 is in the secondary, as cornerback Sojourn Shelton will be the lone starter returning from last year’s group. Aranda did not have this problem in 2015 with a veteran secondary that consisted of fifth-year seniors Michael Caputo, who was the leader of the defense, and Tanner McEvoy at the safety spots and Darius Hillary at cornerback.

Wisconsin will get a look at several untested and inexperienced players like D’Cota Dixon, Arrington Farrar or Leo Musso at safety and Natrell Jamerson, Derrick Tindal or Titus Booker alongside Shelton at the opposite cornerback spot.

The other reason the defense’s expectations should be limited is out of Wisconsin’s control. The Badgers will face a treacherous schedule in 2016 beginning with Aranda and LSU at Lambeau Field. This will also mark the first season Big Ten teams will play nine league games. For the Badgers, the first four games of the conference slate reads like this: at Michigan State, at Michigan, home Ohio State and at Iowa.

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Would the Badgers have had the best scoring defense in 2015 with the 2016 schedule? Absolutely not. The only top-30 offense Wisconsin had to play was Alabama, who racked up 502 yards of offense and 35 points in the season opener.

Wisconsin’s schedule was much more beneficial for Aranda in his three years, and while his defenses were incredible with the Badgers, the final statistics were undoubtedly inflated because of the teams they played.

Wilcox knows what he is doing with 10 years of experience as a defensive coordinator, and his defenses have finished in the top 30 in defensive efficiency for four consecutive seasons. Wisconsin will bring a great amount of of talent to the defensive side of the ball in 2016, and sticking with the same scheme should ease the transition. However, the Badgers’ defensive statistics will likely regress in Wilcox’s first season. The numbers will be compared to the Aranda era, which is unfair given what lies ahead.

Next: Wisconsin Football 2016 Outlook: Offensive Line

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