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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers – Pre-Game Analysis

By Josh Blakely

Feb 10, 2015; Lincoln, NE, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nigel Hayes (10) drives into Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Walter Pitchford (35) in the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Wisconsin won 65-55. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 10, 2015; Lincoln, NE, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nigel Hayes (10) drives into Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Walter Pitchford (35) in the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Wisconsin won 65-55. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Wisconsin Badgers look for win No. 6 in a row against Nebraska

The Nebraska Cornhuskers visit the Kohl Center, today, at 6 p.m. I hope you have the Big Ten Network, so you can see the Wisconsin Badgers go for a 6-game win streak, which would be triple the next best winning streak of the season.

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Can the Badgers do it?  The short answer is: Yes, and, for once, Ken Pomeroy and I agree.  Pomeroy predicts a 71-64 Badgers victory with a 76% chance of winning. I have it at 72-66 (adjusted points) or 71-65 (component points).

How the Badgers get there will be familiar – the free throw line. Bucky’s 6-point edge in made free throws exactly equals its predicted 6-point margin of victory, which means that everything else balances out.

Nebraska pre game - 2-9-16
Nebraska pre game - 2-9-16 /

As with the game against Ohio State, there is very little else to distinguish the two teams. Nebraska will have a slight edge inside and bigger edges in blocks and steals, while the Badgers pair a slight edge from behind the line with bigger edges in assists and offensive rebounds.

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However, as I was preparing this, I realized that I could do this analysis based on conference stats, only. This is particularly interesting for the Badgers, since the switch from Bo Ryan to Greg Gard happened only one game before the conference season started. This means that conference stats are a decent proxy for Greg Gard.

So, does Gard’s record make the chances of winning bigger? No, it actually shrinks it to 70-66 (adjusted points) or keeps it the same 70-64 (component points).

Nebraska pre game (conference only) - 2-9-16
Nebraska pre game (conference only) - 2-9-16 /

The only stats that change by more than five percentage points of advantage to one side or the other are:

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  1.  Blocks – the Badgers lose 13.4 percentage points of edge.
  2. Steals – the Badgers gain 7.4 percentage points of edge.
  3. Free Throw Attempts – the Badgers gain 6.6 percentage points of edge.
  4. Free Throws Made – the Badgers gain 5.8 percentage points of edge.

This analysis doesn’t do a great job of evaluating the changes under Gard, because they incorporate the changes that Nebraska has gone through as well.

What we should do, instead, is to compare this prediction based on non-conference stats with one based on conference stats. Unfortunately, Pomeroy doesn’t break the stats down that way. Therefore I’m left with comparing the total stats for the year with the conference numbers, which is what you can see, below.

Nebraska pre game - conference v. overall numbers - 2-9-16
Nebraska pre game - conference v. overall numbers - 2-9-16 /

This chart shows the stats, ranging from the one that has improved the most (steals at 6.4%) to the one that has declined the most (blocks at -27.6%). On the up-side, Gard is unleashing the ball-hawks on defense, having his team take more three pointers and overall shoot better. Inserting Alex Illikainen into the lineup has made a big difference in this regard. The Badgers under Gard are also limiting turnovers better. Maybe this is part of re-installing the swing offense.

Moving to the down-side, Gard’s Badgers don’t protect the rim as well and have done a 180 by not pursuing offensive rebounds. This is usually a conscious choice by the coach to get back on defense and something that Bo Ryan teams routinely have done. This season had been an aberration on that front, so Gard is bringing things back to what we might expect.

Overall, the result is a slight decrease in scoring, that probably isn’t a big enough difference to be meaningful. It appears that things have changed, but the end result hasn’t.

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