How does the Wisconsin basketball team’s bracket look?
The Badgers pulled a seven seed in the East Region of the tournament. If you go by Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, the Wisconsin basketball team is truly an eight seed.
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If you compare all the seeds to what they “should” be according to Pomeroy (and I have done that for you, dear reader), you see that teams are over-seeded by slightly over one rank, on average, so the Badgers are right where they should be by this measure.
Wisconsin never ranked better than a seven seed by Pomeroy, so the loss to Nebraska doesn’t seem to have hurt them that much.
The difference between a six or seven seed shouldn’t have much impact, but, the Badgers avoided the dreaded eight-nine match-up and a potential second round (yeah, it’s the second round, NCAA) tilt against a one seed.
Looking at the fairness of the Badgers’ seed is only one part of the analysis. Digging a little deeper, we can see that their path to the Sweet Sixteen is a pretty good one.
Remember how teams were “over-seeded” by one rank on average, well, the Badgers’ opponents in the first and second rounds were over-seeded by two ranks each.
That’s right, Pittsburgh is the equivalent of a 12 seed and Xavier looks more like a four seed.
However, if they get to the Sweet Sixteen, they would likely face West Virginia, which is the best three-seed, in a walk. West Virginia looks like the second-best two-seed by Pomeroy, so the Badgers will have a tough match-up there.
Good thing they aren’t the six-seed in this region, having to potentially face West Virginia in the second round, so, I guess that loss to Nebraska was a good thing, after all.
Does West Virginia and a severely under-seeded Kentucky (two ranks) make the East the “Bracket of Death?” Not really. A summary of the average over-seeding sits in the chart, below, which shows that the Bracket of Death is . . .
. . . the South. The teams in the South are only over-seeded by .4 ranks on average. There are a lot more teams under-seeded by one or two ranks, but the main driver is Wichita State, which is a 14 seed, while being considered a three-seed by Pomeroy.
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And, if you think that’s a bad break for the Shockers, consider that they are part of the play-in games, and, as a cherry on top, they have to play Vanderbilt, who should be a six-seed, not a 14. I’ve been following college basketball for many more years than I care to count, and I can’t think of a worse situation for a top-25 caliber team.
That doesn’t mean the Badgers are part of the “Bracket of Life.” That honor belongs to UW-Green Bay and the West region, where teams are over-seeded by 1.6 ranks, on average. And this carries through most combinations of teams (just not top-12).
The South is also the worst-seeded bracket, carrying far and away the most variance from the Pomeroy rankings. The East is the best-seeded bracket, having less than half of the variance of the South.
What is causing the variance in the South? I’ve mentioned the Wichita State debacle, but there are more examples. In fact, here are the most over and under-seeded teams:
Over-Seeded
- USC (5 ranks) – East
- UW-Green Bay (5 ranks) – West
- Texas (5 ranks) – West
- Colorado (6 ranks) – South
- Buffalo (5 ranks) – South
- Temple (6 ranks) – South
- Fresno State (5 ranks) – Midwest
- Dayton (7 ranks) – Midwest
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Under-Seeded
- Stephen F. Austin (5 ranks) – East
- Wichita State (11 ranks) – South
- Vanderbilt (8 ranks) – South
- Gonzaga (7 ranks) – Midwest
If you are looking for upsets, you should start with these 8, where the underdog is actually the favorite or has the same rank (adjusted ranks):
- Providence (12) over USC (13)
- Cincinnati (8) over St. Joseph’s (10)
- VCU (11) over Oregon State (15)
- UConn (7) over Colorado (14)
- Wichita State (3) over Arizona (4)
- Butler (10) over Texas Tech (11)
- Gonzaga (7) over Seton Hall (7)
- Syracuse (11) over Dayton (14)
You may note that there are no 12/5 match-ups, here. If you are hell-bent on finding one of those, the closest you can get is Yale (10) against Baylor (6).
Next: Wisconsin's Chances at a Deep Tourney Run
When you look at the brackets, I’m cautiously optimistic for at least one Badgers victory, and possibly even two. Stay tuned for my write-up on the the Pittsburgh game.