Wisconsin Football: Will a weak schedule hurt Playoff chances?

Wisconsin football plays a weak non-conference schedule again this year.

This is the second in as many years Wisconsin opens its season with non-conference games that won’t move the needle for the College Football Playoff committee. Last year it was all the rave to discount the Badgers due to a weak schedule, but they were all but a lock for the Playoff had they won the Big Ten Championship.

This year is a new year, but we still have the same problem. Wisconsin will play Western Kentucky and New Mexico before hosting BYU on the Cougars’ return trip of the home-and-home series. All three teams could finish below .500 and miss a bowl game meaning these games aren’t of any value to Wisconsin’s resume.

Teams like Washington and Michigan, meanwhile, open by playing two ranked opponents, and both are competing for a Playoff spot of their own. Wisconsin could be behind in for some troubling news if it comes down to them or the Badgers. The non-conference schedule could tip the scales away from Bucky.

Fortunately for Wisconsin, they at least play Michigan this year in the regular season and have a chance to earn a theoretical tie-breaker over the Wolverines. But will it really be bad for Wisconsin who doesn’t have a marquee matchup on the schedule?

In short, no.

Wisconsin Badgers Football

Wisconsin did just fine last season and was on the doorstep of the Playoff. While the Badgers had to go undefeated in the regular season to get there, they shouldn’t have to do so this year. At the very least, a split between the Michigan and Penn State games should be enough to go along with a win in Big Ten Championship. The Big Ten is much more difficult than the Pac 12 or Big 12 and as long as Wisconsin doesn’t suffer a second loss in the season, the Big Ten winner, with only one loss, should be a shoe-in for the Playoff.

The Big Ten West isn’t a murderer’s row like the East is, but there should be some improved teams and better competition offering more solid wins to the Badgers in 2018.

And while a win over a team like Auburn would be great for Washington, there’s no such thing as a good loss. There’s nothing to gain for Washington unless they win. And even then, they still must win the Pac 12 to even have a chance to make the Playoff.

In the current state of college football with such a small playoff, I don’t think it’s very beneficial to schedule a tough game to open the season. It’s super unlikely that it comes down to a tie-breaker like a non-conference win to decide a Playoff spot. It’s not worth risking a loss over. Winning that matchup doesn’t get you very far and it doesn’t change what you must do on championship weekend. If Washington is a one-loss or undefeated Pac 12 champ it’s probably going to make the Playoff, with or without Auburn on the schedule. But a second loss could doom them.

The rest of Wisconsin’s conference schedule this year will be much easier to justify for the committee. And Wisconsin’s goal is still the same: Win the Big Ten and you’re in.