Wisconsin Football: Best sports gambling bets against BYU

Every week we’ll analyze the lines and totals for Wisconsin football, plus anything else that might be able to make you some money.

Hopefully, any wagers you placed on Wisconsin football last weekend weren’t with my picks in mind. After going 0-2 in week one, I went 0-2 again. The game against New Mexico was a tough lesson in just how heartless sports gambling can be.

Last week my official play was Wisconsin -35 and under 58. I lost both, but the total was devastating.

First, the spread. It was going to be difficult to cover for the Badgers because of the slow start. After taking a 10-7 lead into halftime, it wasn’t impossible to cover, but it didn’t seem like this would be a game Wisconsin was going to run away with. I was thinking maybe a 34-10 final. Wisconsin wasn’t going to cover, but the under 58 looked fantastic.

A 21-point run to start the second half for Wisconsin changed everything until New Mexico scored again. I was looking at going 2-0 but that second score from the Lobos doomed me. If the Badgers were going to cover the 35-point spread, they were likely going to have to go over. But still, that wasn’t the most likely outcome. What was, was the 1-1 push on the day if the under stuck.

That dream was crushed when Madison Cone intercepted the ball and gave Wisconsin a chance to score one more time. It did. The 45-14 total equals 59, which is obviously one more than 58. A tough, tough beat on the under considering it was only at 17 after the first half.

Enough about that poor record. There is work to be done to salvage this 0-4 start to the season.

Please remember to always play responsibly. Do not wager any money you do not have and do not take anything I say here or in the future as fact. No bet is guaranteed. I do not personally gamble on sports, I only entertain the concept as an additional way to enjoy and discuss sports. I do not encourage gambling.

The Spread

Wisconsin opened as a 21.5-point favorite over BYU this week. Finally, a spread that Wisconsin has a chance to cover. You would think after calling the Badgers against the spread and missing two straight weeks I’d change my mind. But you’d be wrong.

We’re letting it ride and laying the points here. BYU lost last week to Cal 21-18. The Cougars gave up 386 yards to the Golden Bears and only managed 287 of their own. While Cal’s defense is solid, it’s not Wisconsin’s defense. And Wisconsin’s offense is much better than Cal’s. Plus, this game is in Madison, not Provo.

Wisconsin blew out BYU last year. Despite slow starts, Wisconsin is blowing out its opponents this year too. This spread is manageable for Wisconsin. The only way it doesn’t cover is if it gives up too many points because Wisconsin is probably good for at least 40 again.

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The Total

The over/under for this one is strangely 44.5. With the spread and total, the final score is predicted to be somewhere around 33-12. Those aren’t great football numbers, so let’s call it 34-14. While that’s not a cover, that’s the over. And that’s what I’m taking on this.

I handcuffed myself last week trying to outsmart the system. Taking Wisconsin to cover such a large spread while also wanting the under leaves very little wiggle room. I’m not playing that game this week. I need to go 2-0.

I think the over could be hit by Wisconsin alone. A score of something around 44-17 seems reasonable to me. Even if Wisconsin starts slow, it showed it can finish fast.

The Play

Official play: Wisconsin -21.5, over 44.5.

Wisconsin to cover plus the over gives me a great shot to go 2-0. It allows for Wisconsin to run up the score and it won’t cost me any danger on the total. And if Wisconsin isn’t able to cover because BYU is scoring more than expected, I can still salvage the weekend by going 1-1.

In a matchup like this, it’s extremely unlikely for BYU to cover while not hitting the over. That would require a close, low-scoring game. I don’t expect a 24-21 battle, but that still hits the over. So I’d take it. We just can’t go 0-2 again.