Wisconsin football is off a bye week, which means we took a week off of picks. But we’re back at it ready to continue our winning streak.
After an extremely, terrible, awful, brutal start to the season we’ve finally started to turn things around. The first two weeks saw us go 0-2 on the picks, but in the last two games, we’re 3-1, including a 2-0 week vs. Iowa. We’re still only 3-5 with picks on the season, but trending upwards.
Week 1 vs. Western Kentucky: 0-2
Week 2 vs. New Mexico: 0-2
Week 3 vs. BYU: 1-1
Week 4 vs. Iowa: 2-0
Two weeks ago I gave out Wisconsin to cover 3.5 points and for the total to go over 41.5. I liked Wisconsin against the spread because I felt like everybody had quit on the Badgers and Iowa was being pumped up because of something they did to Ohio State last year. Credit the Hawkeyes for that incredible throttling of the Buckeyes, but that wasn’t the Badgers, and this wasn’t the same Hawkeyes team.
We were lucky to hit on the over. Had Wisconsin just ran the clock out it wouldn’t have won. Alec Ingold’s last-minute touchdown was huge. We would’ve still had the cover as Wisconsin was up by four at the time, but every once in a while you have to be on the right side of some of those last-second swing plays. I’m sure the under was a popular wager. Too bad it was the wrong one.
Note: I got my pick in at over 41.5. The total continued to climb afterward, decreasing in value.
This weekend’s game against Nebraska is another interesting one where you can tell there are clear perceptions of what these teams are. We’ll have to sift through all the nonsense to come out on the other end of this one 2-0 to bring the season record even.
Please remember to always play responsibly. Do not wager any money you do not have and do not take anything I say here or in the future as fact. No bet is guaranteed. I do not personally gamble on sports, I only entertain the concept as an additional way to enjoy and discuss sports. I do not encourage gambling.
Since this line opened at Wisconsin -23.5, it has dropped significantly to only Wisconsin -17. This means a lot of action has come in on the Nebraska side forcing the line to give fewer points to the underdog in an effort to bring the action on Wisconsin’s side.
I’m a little surprised by the line changing this much. I didn’t think Nebraska would be that popular. If anything, Wisconsin would be the popular team and the sharp money in Vegas would eventually come in on the hungry underdog if the line grew. Now that the money is heavily in favor of Nebraska the pick almost has to be Wisconsin. There’s just too much value laying on the table.
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Of course, we have to examine if Wisconsin can win this game by a margin of 17 points. That’s a football number, so final scores of 34-17 or 37-20 will only push. If this trend continues it’ll find itself at 16.5 and that becomes a pretty easy lay.
I’ve taken the over just about every week with Wisconsin because I refuse to believe the offense isn’t working. It finally hit against BYU and Iowa and I feel like it’s best to keep riding the over against Nebraska.
The total right now is at 58. That’s more than two touchdowns higher than it was for the Iowa game. Iowa’s defense was much better than Nebraska’s will be tomorrow night, but I also think Nebraska can score more and keep the tempo of the game pretty high, which will create more possessions and more points.
That score of 37-20 will only hit a total of 57. In order to go over, I think Wisconsin has to reach the 40’s. If they do, I believe a cover is in the works too.
Official play: Wisconsin -17, over 58.
Wisconsin’s young secondary is going to be put to a great test this weekend against Stanley Morgan Jr. and JD Spielman. Scott Frost will do everything he can to attack the weak points of the Badger defense. I’m walking a very fine line trusting Frost and the Huskers to put up enough points to help hit the over, but not enough to cover.
A final score of 48-21 comfortably wins both picks and I think that’s a realistic final score. I can’t see Nebraska stopping Wisconsin enough to keep the game much closer than three touchdowns. And a garbage time touchdown won’t hurt us here in any way.