Wisconsin is over halfway through the season after the big upset of the No. 16 USC Trojans. The Badgers have five more games left in the season, and the same question that everyone had at the beginning of the season is still the biggest question now: how will this team finish the season? Is this a six-win team? A seven- or eight-win team? Could they even get to nine or ten wins?
ESPN Analytics predicts literally every game of the season before the season even begins. It then adjusts the percentages as the season courses on. The Badgers actually started the year with ESPN Analytics giving them eight wins. The losses coming from Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, and Iowa. At the time, any Badger fan would have taken that and run. Yet, now the picture has changed.
Wisconsin got wins over Penn State and USC but lost to UCLA (which, before the season, was a predicted win for the Badgers). This has changed things, especially because the analytics model has adjusted as the season has progressed. It will keep adjusting, so these percentages are only as of October 27, 2026.
Week 9: Wisconsin vs. Iowa -- 57.3% Iowa win
The next game is predicted to be an Iowa win, but not by a lot. The model is barely favoring Iowa, the home team, which has beaten Wisconsin a bunch in recent years. So, there's some sense from ESPN Analytics that Wisconsin has a legit shot, and things are different this season.
Week 10: Wisconsin vs. Rutgers -- 90% Wisconsin win
ESPN is giving nothing to the Scarlet Knights and thinks this one is a landslide toward Wisconsin.
Week 11: Wisconsin vs. Maryland -- 81.5% Wisconsin win
You might be asking, why does the model like Wisconsin at nearly a 9% higher probability for Rutgers than Maryland? It simply has to do with home vs. away. Wisconsin is home versus Rutgers but on the road versus Maryland, and the model factors that in.
Week 12: Wisconsin vs. Purdue -- 68.8% Wisconsin win
This Purdue team is different this year, and Wisconsin will be on the road for this one, but ESPN still favors the Badgers by a decent margin.
Week 13: Wisconsin vs. Minnesota -- 81.6% Wisconsin win
This one may surprise you a little bit, but ESPN Analytics really likes the Badgers to take this one, and it's at a higher percentage than Purdue and Maryland.
So, ESPN right now, if you just go by the percentages for each game, is predicting a 4-1 finish for the Badgers and a final record of 9-3. Which is one game higher than before the season, but if somehow Wisconsin beats Iowa, this model will then have Wisconsin winning out with 10 wins. Crazy.
None of these games can be taken for granted, but there's some excitement in what's happening in Madison. Hope is in the air; now the boys have to finish strong and "not be delusional," as Luke Fickell reminds them often. They haven't earned anything yet; it's all still in front of them. Five wins is cool at this point in the season, but nine or ten is so much better. On Wisconsin!
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