John Tonje is considered a top-50 pick in the NBA Draft, but since there are only 59 picks, his range could be quite different. Many projections and mock drafts give us a floor-to-ceiling for Tonje and his draft placement. He could be anywhere between 25 and undrafted, but there are reasons for both. Let's start with the ceiling.
John Tonje's ceiling is slipping into the first round. A bottom-end pick somewhere around 30. While no one has projected Tonje to get into the first round, one anonymous scout has said they could see it happening. It was NBA Insider Gary Woelfel who posted this quote on his social media: "He had a really good season there (at Wisconsin), and he’s been good here (at the NBA Draft Combine). He’s got a wide (draft) range, like from 25 to 45, but I could see him going in the first round."
John Tonje has a floor-ceiling range somewhere between 25-50 in the 2025 NBA Draft
That would be incredible considering that no pundit or draft expert is considering him anywhere below 40. So a slip into the bottom end of the first round would be pretty impressive.
His floor is also hard to project. Tonje was at his best when he was able to be in a high-volume, creator sort of role. In which he could get fouled or make a much-needed bucket. The hard part for Tonje is that in the NBA, it's hard just to have this sort of role as a rookie. He will need to find a way to show his prowess to teams without the high volume. He did have a 42% spot-up success rate from three, which is really high and helpful for scouts to see. His ability to score and spread the floor is something NBA teams need. So he's getting tons of looks.
The floor would be truly slipping out of the NBA Draft. While that seems unlikely, so does him getting drafted at 25. With only 50 picks in the draft and a projected pick of around 44, it's not impossible for him to slip to undrafted.
John Tonje's range is extreme because he's such a unique player who will need to find a unique opportunity. However, his work ethic and competitive fire will prove his ability to play in the NBA.