The Wisconsin Badgers travel to Beaver Stadium this week to take on the No. 14-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions. It's one of the games that has been predicted as a loss on the Badgers' schedule since it was game out. Even for the optimistic fans and media personalities that gave Wisconsin an incredible eight or nine wins in the season, this was still a game listed as a loss.
However, win or lose, it will actually serve as a better litmus test for Luke Fickell's 2026 Badger than any other game so far. And the betting lines seem to indicate this too; it's a far more surprising line than you'd guess. Considering Penn State has beaten their opponents 127-22 over the last three weeks. Granted, those opponents were Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Wisconsin +315
- Penn State -410
Spread
- Wisconsin +9.5 (-100)
- Penn State -9.5 (-122)
Total
- 44.5 (over -110/under -110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
The fact that Wisconsin is basically only a three-field-goal underdog is surprising. Like it was mentioned above, no one is really predicting the Badgers to pull this one off, and yet with a line like that, Vegas isn't as bullish.
Penn State is still chock-full of talent, but it's not the juggernaut it's been known to be. There's a new coach in town: Matt Campbell. He brought in a ton of Iowa State players and worked hard on retaining much of the talent that was currently on the roster, but it's a different team than in years past. On paper, it's a lot closer to what Wisconsin has on paper than you'd imagine. Wisconsin took steps forward with talent, and Penn State went a step back.
Related: 3 winners and 1 loser from Wisconsin's dominant win over Eastern Michigan
We also should remember that this game is on the road for the Badgers. Vegas rewards the home team (rightfully so), and usually it's around a 4-point swing. So, if this were a neutral-site game, Vegas would be even less eager to crown the Nittany Lions as the favorites. It would be more of a five-point favorite situation.
ESPN Analytics sings a much different tune, as Penn State's expected win probability is sitting at 87.5%, leaving only a 12.4% chance for Wisconsin to walk away with the victory. That's a lot more of a strong statement for Penn State than what Vegas is giving them.
How will the game actually go on Saturday? Who knows? Both Penn State and Wisconsin fans are eager to see it. Both consider the other the litmus test for the season. Nittany Lions fans are wondering if they've been holding fools' gold with the three really easy non-conference game wins. There's excitement for new coach Matt Campbell, but it's still the honeymoon period.
Badger fans are also curious if they will see the incomplete team that played against Notre Dame and Western Illinois, or will Wisconsin look like the team that played Eastern Michigan (for the final three quarters)?
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